维持增持评级。公司作为光伏组件龙头，在手订单充沛可支撑全年业绩高速增长，有望进一步受23H2 钙钛矿GW 级产线招标和HJT 扩产放量的催化。维持23-25 年EPS预测为0.80/1.02/1.24 元，参照行业可比公司给予23 年27 倍PE，下调2023 年目标价至21.6 元(原28.4 元)。Introduction to this report:
Performance was in line with expectations. The recovery in the terminal consumer market has led to an increase in demand for equipment, and technological iteration has increased the added value of products; there is plenty of component orders to support short- and medium-term performance, and there is broad long-term space for the forward-looking layout of perovskite.
Key points of investment:
Maintain ratings to increase holdings. As a leader in photovoltaic modules, the company has sufficient orders to support rapid growth in annual performance, and is expected to be further catalyzed by the 23H2 perovskite GW production line tender and HJT production expansion. The 23-25 EPS forecast was maintained at 0.80/1.02/1.24 yuan. Comparable companies in the industry gave 27 times PE in 23 years, and lowered the target price for 2023 to 21.6 yuan (originally 28.4 yuan).
The 23Q2 results were in line with expectations. The company's 23H1 achieved revenue of 3.41 billion yuan/ +48.7%, and net profit of 240 million yuan/ +65.2%, which is at the center of performance forecasting; 23Q2 alone achieved revenue of 2.08 billion yuan/ +65.8%, and net profit of 190 million yuan/ +66.2%.
By product, the 23H1 packaging business achieved revenue of 390 million yuan/ -2.2%, with a gross profit margin of 23.7% /+3.5pct. The year-on-year decline narrowed due to a recovery in terminal demand; the photovoltaic business achieved revenue of 2.39 billion yuan/ +75.5%, and a gross profit margin of 21.5% /+0.4pct, which continued to increase due to the photovoltaic boom.
The recovery in the terminal consumer market has led to an increase in demand for equipment, and technological iteration has increased the added value of products. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of 23H1 social consumer goods was 22.8 trillion yuan/ +8.2%, showing a steady recovery trend. Among them, the relatively rapid increase in online retail sales of goods (+10.8%) led to an increase in demand for corrugated packaging products, which in turn boosted demand for corrugated packaging production line equipment. The company is actively improving and iterating products, launching high value-added products through AI algorithm empowerment, etc., and compounding cost management and production efficiency optimization. There is still room for improvement in gross margin.
Component orders are sufficient to support short to medium term performance, and there is broad scope for the forward-looking layout of perovskite in the long term. By the end of 23H1, the company had orders of 9.202 billion yuan (tax included)/+121.4%. Since 23 years, it has announced 5 large orders totaling 2,701 billion yuan (tax included), and component orders have continued to rise. The company extends from the HJT (clean velvet, electroplating metallization) and TopCon (clean velvet) battery end; the forward-looking perovskite layout already has MW grade perovskite, overall solutions, and GW grade perovskite mass production equipment supply capacity, and is expected to be catalyzed by GW production line tenders in the second half of the year.
Risk warning: New product development falls short of expectations, downstream demand falls short of expectations, market competition intensifies