2023H1 公司净利润同比增长1.2%至154 亿元、净利率由2022H2 的9.5%下滑至5.9%，显著低于我们此前预期，主要由于：（1）2023H1 公司营收同比增速27%低于我们此前预期，主要源自云服务器业务下滑超出预期；分业务来看，公司智能网连业务同比增速最快达118%、云服务器业务同比下滑71%（由于疫情期间大幅增长、未来将逐步恢复至常态增速）；（2）由于下游车厂压价、上游零组件降价，公司毛利率由2022H2 的21.5%轻微下滑至20.6%；（3）由于研发人员大幅增长、测试验证设备以及软件投入导致研发费用大幅提升。Revenue benefits from intelligent automobiles, and when prices are reduced, it is fully expected to drive a steady recovery in profits
Based on the sharp decline in 2023H1 cloud server revenue and the price reduction for automobile-related parts, we respectively lowered our revenue forecast for 2023-2025 from 70.6/90.6/109 billion yuan to 61.0/75.8/9.10 billion yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 26%/24%/20%; based on the company's gross margin pressure and increased R&D investment, we respectively lowered our 2023-2025 net profit forecast from RMB 5.9/799/960 million yuan to RMB 4.1/506.0 billion yuan, corresponding to The year-on-year growth rate was -1%/21%/21%, corresponding to 2023-2025 EPS of 0.4/0.4/0.5 yuan, respectively. The current stock price of HK$3.27 corresponds to 8.2/6.8/5.7 times PE in 2023-2025, respectively. The company's revenue side is expected to continue to benefit from an increase in the value of automotive semiconductor bikes, and an increase in the domestic supply chain share trend. Waiting for price cuts for core products is fully expected to bring about a steady recovery in profits, but given the sharp decline in cloud server revenue in 2023 and there is still room for price reductions for automobile-related components, it was downgraded to a “increase in holdings” rating.
2023H1's net profit was significantly lower than expected, stemming from a decline in cloud service business and a significant increase in R&D expenses
2023H1's net profit increased 1.2% year on year to 15.4 billion yuan, and net interest rate fell from 9.5% of 2022 H2 to 5.9%, significantly lower than our previous expectations, mainly because: (1) 2023H1's revenue growth rate was 27% lower than our previous expectations, mainly due to the fact that the decline in cloud server business exceeded expectations; by business, the company's intelligent networking business grew 118% year on year, and cloud server business fell 71% year on year (due to the sharp increase during the pandemic, it will gradually return to normal growth in the future); (2) Due to pressure from downstream car manufacturers Prices and upstream component prices were reduced, and the company's gross margin fell slightly from 21.5% of 2022H2 to 20.6%; (3) R&D expenses increased significantly due to a sharp increase in R&D personnel and investment in testing and verification equipment and software.
The revenue side benefits from intelligent automobiles and an increase in domestic production share, and gross margin may continue to be under pressure
The company's product structure is actively skewed towards new energy vehicles, the business structure continues to be optimized, and the revenue share of new energy vehicles and intelligent connectivity continues to rise. Currently, it has increased from 46%/6% in H2 2022 to 48%/8% of 2023H1.
The company's revenue side is expected to continue to benefit from the continued increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the increase in the value of automotive semiconductor bicycles, the strengthening of intelligent self-research by automakers, and the increasing share of the domestic supply chain. Cooperation between the company and Horizon is progressing gradually, and related ADAS solutions are expected to be delivered in bulk by 2024. In terms of gross margin, considering that the company's current core product prices still have room for price reduction, we expect the company's gross margin will still be under pressure.
Risk warning: Electric vehicle penetration is slowing down, industry competition is intensifying, and customer expansion is below expectations.