公司23H1 水泥及熟料收入365.28 亿元，同比下滑17.14%，销量方面，23H1水泥/熟料分别为10692/1473 万吨，同比分别下降3.01%/12.48%。计算综合吨均价同比下滑46.67 元达300 元/吨，受益于煤炭价格下行，吨成本同比下滑26.55 元达257 元/吨，最终实现吨毛利43 元，同比下降20.13 元/吨。23H1 年公司骨料/商混收入25.7/130.3 亿元，同比-23.6%/+5.98%，销量分别为6342 万吨/3375 万方，同比+25.53%/-10.22%，毛利率分别为37.15%/10.64%，同比-10.21/-2.99pct。截至上半年末公司拥有熟料/商混/骨料产能分别为3.2 亿吨/3.9 亿方/2.3 亿吨，产能均居全国第一，在建骨料产能4000 万吨，市场范围涵盖25 个省，东部/中南部/北部/西部分别占比31%/19%/26%/24%，非水泥业务收入占比达到31.7%，毛利占比达34.5%。The company achieved a net profit of 142 million yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 95.94% compared with the same period last year. The company released a 23-year mid-year report, and the income / net profit in the first half of the year was 534.43 million yuan, which was-18.36% and 95.94% compared with the same period last year. The non-return net profit in the first half of the year was-410 million yuan, which was-113.83% compared with the same period last year.
Among them, Q2 realized income / return net profit of 310.64 million yuan in a single quarter, compared with the same period last year,-16.49% and 44.33%, deducting non-return net profit of 1.017 billion yuan,-50.62% of the same period last year.
Both the quantity and price of cement have fallen, and the income of aggregate has increased rapidly.
The company's 23H1 cement and clinker revenue was 36.528 billion yuan, down 17.14% from the same period last year. In terms of sales, 23H1 cement / clinker was 106.92 million tons, down 3.01% and 12.48%, respectively. It is calculated that the average price per ton fell by 46.67 yuan to 300 yuan per ton compared with the same period last year, benefiting from the downward price of coal, the cost per ton decreased by 26.55 yuan to 257 yuan per ton, and finally achieved a gross profit of 43 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20.13 yuan per ton. The annual aggregate / merchandise income of 23H1 is 25.7 trillion yuan, which is 5.98% compared with the same period last year. The sales volume is 63.42 million tons / 3375 million square meters, and the gross profit margin is 37.15%, 10.64% and-10.21/-2.99pct, respectively. By the end of the first half of the year, the company had clinker / commercial mix / aggregate production capacity of 320 million tons / 390 million square meters / 230 million tons respectively, ranking first in the country. The aggregate production capacity under construction is 40 million tons, and the market covers 25 provinces. The eastern / south-central / northern / western accounted for 31%, 19%, 26%, 24%, 31.7%, 37.5% and 34.5%, respectively.
The company actively carries out business integration to effectively improve the efficiency of collectivization management and control, and the internal synergy effect is expected to be further brought into play in the future.
The net interest rate has basically hit bottom and the cash flow has increased over the same period last year.
23H1's overall gross profit margin is 15.09%, year-on-year-3.34pct, of which Q2 single-quarter overall gross profit margin is 18.51%, year-on-year / month-on-month respectively + 0.40/+8.18pct. During the first half of the year, the expense rate was 13.36%, year-on-year + 2.33pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was 1.25%, 6.73%, 1.68%, 3.70%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-0.02/+1.35/+0.73/+0.28pct. Finally achieve a net interest rate of 0.12%, year-on-year-5.89pct. The asset-liability ratio in the first half of the year was 67.77%, which was + 0.35pct compared with the same period last year, and the capital structure remained stable. The net operating cash flow was 8.611 billion yuan, + 3.277 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the decline in cash-to-cash ratio. In the first half of the year, the company's cash-to-cash ratio was 73.8%, a decline in 13.64pct over the same period last year.
Profits have greater resilience and maintain a "buy" rating
The company has the advantage of scale, if the demand improves, the improvement of capacity utilization is expected to lead to cost optimization, profitability is greater recovery flexibility. In view of the decline in performance in the first half of the year, the company's 23-25 net profit forecast for 23-25 is lowered to 573 73.34 billion yuan (the previous value is 61.4 billion 7.60 billion). With reference to comparable companies, the company is given a 23-year PB, with a target price of 9.59 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: cement demand is not as expected, peak season prices are not as expected, coal costs are rising, and so on.
