光库科技(300620):短期业绩承压 铌酸锂调制器保持领先

Guangku Technology (300620): Short-term performance is pressured, lithium niobate modulators maintain the lead

光大證券 ·  08/25/2023

Optical Library Technology: A high-tech enterprise specializing in the design, development, production, sales and service of optical fiber devices, lithium niobate modulation devices and photonic integrated devices. The company's main products are fiber laser devices and optical communication devices.

The company's 2023 mid-year report performance is under pressure: the company has published its 2023 mid-year report, achieving revenue of 339 million yuan, an increase of 7.51% over the same period last year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 32 million yuan, a decrease of 45.22% over the same period last year. The main reasons for the decline in the company's performance in the first half of '23: (1) the complex macro-business environment and macroeconomic fluctuations had an adverse impact on the company's customer demand, supply chain logistics, production and operation, etc., and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continued to affect the company's overseas business; (2) in the first half of '23, demand in the optical communications and data center markets declined; (3) In the first half of '23, demand in the industrial laser industry was insufficient, competition in the domestic market was intense, and fiber laser device prices fell year-on-year. In addition, during the reporting period, the company increased investment in research and development of new products and processes, such as thin-film lithium niobate high-speed modulator chips and devices, and lidar light source modules for autonomous vehicles. R&D expenses for the half-year of 2023 increased by 17.94 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 39.73% over the same period last year.

Localization of the fiber laser industry is progressing rapidly, breaking overseas monopolies: As the largest consumer market for fiber lasers in the world, the number of domestic manufacturers continues to increase, its comprehensive strength continues to increase, and market competition is becoming more and more intense. In the field of pulsed fiber lasers, at present, domestic substitution has basically been completed, and foreign manufacturers only have a certain advantage in a few high-end application fields. Domestic manufacturers, represented by the company, have broken the market monopoly of foreign manufacturers in terms of core optical fiber devices such as high-power optical fiber gratings, high-power bundle combiners, and high-power output heads of continuous fiber lasers, and achieved rapid improvements in product performance and market share.

Demand for photonic integration technology is growing, and the company's lithium niobate modulators are leading the world: Driven by next-generation high-speed broadband access, data centers and 5G construction, the photonic integrated device industry will usher in a new round of technology and product upgrades. Demand for DFB laser chips, AWG chips, and other photonic integrated chips is growing rapidly. Among them, the design of telecom-grade lithium niobate high-speed modulator chip products is difficult and the process is very complicated. Only three companies in the world can supply lithium niobate modulators in batches. The next-generation thin-film lithium niobate photonic integration technology developed by the company can be used both in coherent transmission and in non-coherent transmission modes. Compared with other traditional modulators, it has many advantages such as high speed, low power consumption, and high signal-to-noise ratio, and is expected to occupy an important position in the long-distance backbone network, metropolitan area network, data center and data center interconnection market.

Profit Forecast, Valuation and Rating: Considering poor demand due to macroeconomic fluctuations, we expect the company's net profit to be 115 million yuan and 155 million yuan in 2023 and 2024. Compared with the previous forecast, it is 40% and 35% lower, respectively, and the 2025 forecast was added. We expect the company's operating income for 2023-2025 to be 797/97/1,193 million yuan respectively, net profit to be 1.15/1.55/221 million yuan respectively, and the current market value corresponding to PE 91/67/47 times. The company is a global leader in lithium niobate modulators. A new generation of thin-film lithium niobate technology is being developed, and we maintain the company's “increase” rating.

Risk warning: Demand for fiber lasers falls short of expectations, and the progress of new product development falls short of expectations.

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