维持“增持”评级 。2023H1 生物柴油价格波动较大，根据财报数据，我们下调公司2023-2025 年预测净利润至3.31（-42%）、4.57（-23%）、6.01（-13%）亿元，对应EPS2.76、3.81、5.01 元。短期业绩波动不改公司作为生物柴油行业龙头的长期投资价值，可比公司（山高、嘉澳、朗坤）2023EPE 均值17.6 倍，给与公司2023 年20 倍PE，下调目标价至55.20 元。This report is read as follows:
The net profit belonging to 2023H1 was 152 million yuan, down 43% from the same period last year. Affected by the decline in raw materials and oil prices of domestic enterprises examined by ISCC, biodiesel products fluctuated in volume and price in the short term.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The price of 2023H1 biodiesel fluctuates greatly. According to the financial report data, we lowered the company's forecast net profit for 2023-2025 to 3.31,4.57 (- 23%) and 6.01 (- 13%) million yuan, corresponding to EPS2.76, 3.81,5.01 yuan. Short-term performance fluctuations do not change the long-term investment value of the company as a leader in the biodiesel industry, comparable to the average 2023EPE of the company (Shankao, Jiaao, Langkun) 17.6 times, giving the company 20 times PE in 2023, lowering the target price to 55.20 yuan.
The performance was lower than expected. 1) the revenue of 2023H1 Company reached 1.829 billion yuan, down 19% from the same period last year; the attributable net profit was 152 million yuan, down 43% from the same period last year; and the non-attributable net profit was 166 million yuan, down 36% from the same period last year. 2023Q2 deducted non-attributable net profit of 98 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 44% over the previous quarter. 2) the domestic biodiesel export volume of 2023H1 maintains the growth, and the European market demand is good. However, due to the ISCC review of domestic raw materials and oil prices and other factors, short-term product volume and price fluctuations.
Continue to operate steadily and actively promote the project on hand. Relying on the advantages of brands and channels accumulated over the years, the company's biodiesel export volume and production capacity are still growing synchronously. 1) in terms of production and operation, the company strictly controls the procurement risk and cost, and completes the technical transformation and upgrading of biodiesel production equipment in various plants. 2) in the construction of purchase and sales system, the company actively expanded the application and promotion of biodiesel in ships and other new fields; Singapore and Holland subsidiaries obtained ISCC certification in May. 3) in terms of project construction, land exploration has been completed for 200000 tons / year of hydrocarbon-based biodiesel and 50,000 tons / year of natural fatty alcohol projects.
European carbon restraint policy to stimulate biodiesel demand, the industry will maintain a high demeanor for a long time. With the adoption of EU carbon tariffs, the expansion of the carbon trading system and increased cuts to further release biodiesel demand, the industry will maintain a high demeanor for a long time. As a biodiesel leader, the company will fully benefit.
Risk tips: product demand is lower than expected, prices fluctuate sharply, project progress is lower than expected, and so on.
