Main points of investment
Event: CCI Energy released its mid-2023 report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 8.939 billion yuan, year-on-year + 1.06%, and net profit of 84 million yuan, + 242.65%, deducting non-return net profit of-27 million yuan, + 78.14% of the same period last year. 2023Q2, the company achieved revenue of 3.588 billion yuan, year-on-year + 4.98%, return to the mother net profit of 225 million yuan, year-on-year + 275.07%. Combined with the company's operating data, our comments are as follows:
Comments: the volume and price of the holding unit rose together & the profit of taking a stake in thermal power, and the performance of the second quarter reversed losses. The company realizes the double rise of electricity price by optimizing the electricity during the peak and valley period and striving for alternative electricity; the 2023H1 holding unit completes 181.75 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, + 2.02% compared with the same period last year, and the average utilization hour is + 49 hours compared with the same period last year; the average online electricity price is 399.39 yuan / megawatt-hour, + 1.44% compared with the same period last year. Due to the high price of Q1 coal (1046.75 yuan / ton), the average price of standard coal in the first half of the year was 977.54 yuan / ton, + 1.44% compared with the same period last year. The 11 thermal power companies in the table lost 255 million yuan in net profit and-0.014 yuan per kilowatt-hour in net profit. In terms of investment income, thanks to the profits of participating in thermal power companies (of which Hanfeng Power Generation and Guoneng Cangdong realized net profits of 1.31 yuan and 119 million yuan) and dividends on non-current financial assets, H1 Company achieved an investment income of 175 million yuan, + 236.93% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the company earned 52 million yuan in non-operating income from carbon quota trading in the first half of the year.
Outlook: the new thermal power unit is expected to be put into production in the second half of the year, and it is optimistic that the performance will continue to repair under the trend of cost-side improvement.
The company is building a thermal power unit Shouyang Power Generation (2 × 35 million kilowatts) Unit 1 has passed 168-hour trial operation in July, and is expected to speed up the commissioning of power generation; the fourth phase of Xibaipo Power Plant (1 × 66 million kilowatts) and Renqiu Thermal Power Phase II (2 × 35 million kilowatts) were approved in April. In addition, the company has accelerated the transformation of new energy. By the end of H1, the installed capacity of new energy has been 310000 kilowatts, and the scale of projects under construction and under construction has increased to 1.77 million kilowatts. In the future, with the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration and the construction of Xiongan New area, the growth of the company's assets is expected.
Investment suggestion: the company's location advantage & the increase in the proportion of long-term Association is expected to further reduce the price of thermal coal and new thermal power and green power units to ensure the medium-term growth of the company. We adjusted the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 to RMB 4.60,7.44 and 862 million, which was + 346.7%, + 61.7% and + 15.9% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the PE valuation corresponding to the closing price on August 24 was 24.2x, 15.0x and 12.9x, respectively.
Risk hints: coal prices rising sharply, power trading risk, spot advance less than expected, macroeconomic fluctuations