公司上半年收入增长强劲，主要得益于益赛普和赛普汀的增长。益赛普实现收入3.04 亿（同比+24.98%），产品受益诊疗需求恢复，以及3 月份新批准的预充针剂型推广。赛普汀上半年实现收入1.09 亿（同比+60.46%），产品在2023 版CSCO 乳腺癌诊疗指南中被列为HER2 晚期乳腺癌治疗的1 级推荐用药，并在医保中解除与长春瑞滨联合使用的限制，已覆盖1300 多家医院，鉴于乳腺癌的广阔市场，赛普汀快速增长。此外，CMDO 同比增长191.69%，健尼哌同比增长34.27%。Events:
The company released its mid-2023 report that the revenue in the first half of 2023 was 478 million, an increase of 40.28% over the same period last year; the net profit from return to home was 95 million (the same period last year-7 million), and the net profit from non-return to home was 84 million (- 29 million from the same period last year). The company achieved revenue of 270 million in the second quarter, an increase of 50.19% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 61 million (- 8 million in the same period last year). The performance was in line with expectations.
The performance is beautiful, and Yisep and Septin are growing rapidly.
The company's strong revenue growth in the first half of the year was mainly due to the growth of Yisep and Septin. Yisaipu achieved revenue of 304 million (year-on-year + 24.98%), the recovery of demand for diagnosis and treatment of products, and the newly approved pre-injection promotion in March. Septin achieved an income of 109 million in the first half of the year (+ 60.46% compared with the same period last year). The product was listed as a level 1 recommended drug for the treatment of advanced breast cancer in CSCO breast cancer guidelines in the 2023 edition, and the restriction on the use of vinorelbine in combination with vinorelbine was lifted in health insurance, covering more than 1300 hospitals. In view of the vast market for breast cancer, Septin is growing rapidly. In addition, CMDO increased by 191.69% over the same period last year, and Guineapa increased by 34.27% year-on-year.
Promotion of drug research and development in the fields of autoimmune diseases and inflammation
The company's IL-17A target drug completed the III phase clinical enrollment in April; we expect the main clinical data of the III phase this year (12 weeks) to be read out; the II phase clinical of IL-4R α target drug for moderate and severe atopic dermatitis reached the main clinical end point in August, and the II phase clinical IND application for COPD indications was accepted; the IL-5 drug asthma indication II phase clinical completed in July. The II phase clinical of IL-1 β drug acute gouty arthritis reached the main end point, and the IND application of IL-33 target drug COPD was submitted and accepted. We believe that in 2024-2026, the company will gradually have new drugs in the field of autoimmunity and inflammation to enter the NDA stage.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
From 2023 to 2025, we estimate that the company's income will be 11.781,398 billion in 2023-2025, with a growth rate of 21.14%, 17.83% and 18.66%, respectively, and the net profit of return to the parent will be 1.20pm, 1.34 billion, respectively (excluding the investment income from asset transfer for the time being), and the growth rate will be 142.98%, 12.22%, 29.89% and 52.43% respectively, respectively. The value of the pipeline under development is estimated by the DCF absolute valuation method to be 13.5 billion, which is comparable to the company's average 2023 valuation of 23 times (corresponding to the existing business valuation of 2.76 billion). The total cash obtained by stacking the transferred assets is 16.704 billion. The company focuses on self-exemption, segment valuation method we give the company a target price of 27.07 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: collection of Adamu biosimilar drugs; lower-than-expected R & D / sales of autoimmune drugs; risk of deterioration of competition pattern of autoimmune drugs
