2023 年上半年公司吨指标来看，公司2023 年上半年水泥熟料单位价格300.27 元/吨，相比去年同期-13.45%；单位成本256.85 元/吨，相比去年同期-9.37%；单位毛利43.42元/吨，相比去年同期-31.67%。主要系水泥库存处于高位，市场需求疲软，行业供需矛盾突出所致。Key points of investment
The company disclosed its semi-annual report for 2023, achieving operating income of 53.443 billion yuan, -18.36% year-on-year, and net profit of 142 million yuan, or -95.94% year-on-year, mainly due to overcapacity in the industry, overall weakening demand, and price reduction. Net profit after deducting net profit of 410 million yuan after deducting net profit of -410 million yuan, or -113.83% year-on-year. Among them, revenue for the second quarter was 31,064 billion yuan, -16.49% year-on-year, and net profit of 1,373 billion yuan, or -44.33%, net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 1,017 billion yuan, or -50.62% year-on-year.
The company achieved revenue of 53.443 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, -18.36% over the same period last year. By product, the company's cement clinker, commercial concrete, aggregate and other products achieved revenue of 365.28, 130.28, 25.68, and 1,319 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -17.14%, -23.63%, +5.89%, and -30.42%, respectively. Cement clinker is the main sales product, accounting for 68.35% of main revenue, a decrease of 1.01 pct compared to the same period in 2022.
Looking at the company's tonnage index for the first half of 2023, the company's unit price of cement clinker for the first half of 2023 was 300.27 yuan/ton, compared to -13.45% in the same period last year; the unit cost was 256.85 yuan/ton, compared to the same period last year, -9.37%; and the unit gross profit was 43.42 yuan/ton, compared to the same period last year, -31.67%. This is mainly due to high cement stocks, weak market demand, and prominent contradictions between supply and demand in the industry.
Company expenses for the first half of 2023 accounted for 13.36% of total revenue, +2.31 percentage points from the same period last year. 1) Sales expense ratio 1.25%, -0.02 percentage points year on year; 2) Management expense rate 6.73%, +1.34 percentage points year on year; 3) Financial expense ratio 3.70%, +0.28 percentage points year on year; 4) R&D expense ratio 1.68%, +0.72 percentage points year on year; 5) Credit impairment losses in the first half of 2023 were -193 million yuan, compared to -466 million yuan in the previous period, mainly due to credit impairment losses accrued in the first half of the year.
The company's balance ratio for the first half of 2023 was 67.77%, compared to 67.42% for the same period last year. Short-term loans of 26.507 billion yuan (33.413 billion yuan in the same period of '22); long-term loans of 58.025 billion yuan (33.669 billion yuan in the same period of '22); accounts receivable of 32.836 billion yuan, compared to -8.79% compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the company's adherence to account receivables safety, strict control of commercial mixed accounts receivable, and improvement of the credit control system. Projects under construction amounted to 18.097 billion yuan, accounting for 6.11% of total assets, up 1.02 pct from the end of 2022. This is mainly due to the continuous construction and expansion of the company's aggregate project and increased investment in the first half of the year.
The company's net cash flow for the first half of 2023 was +8.611 billion yuan, compared to the same period last year, +3,277 billion yuan, mainly due to a decrease in tax payments in the first half of the year; net cash flow from investment activities - 4.393 billion yuan, compared to +3.456 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in expenses for the purchase of fixed assets, intangible assets, long-term assets, etc. in the first half of the year; net cash flow from fund-raising activities was 1,466 billion yuan, compared to the same period of the previous year. It was mainly due to other cash payments related to fund-raising activities in the first half of the year Caused by an increase. Net operating cash flow per share was +0.99 yuan/share, year-on-year +0.38 yuan/share.
Profit forecast: We adjusted our profit forecast and expected net profit of 21.30, 22.68, and 2,667 billion yuan for 2023-2025. Based on the stock price corresponding to the stock price on August 23, PE was 33.1X, 31.1X, and 26.4X, respectively, maintaining the “increase in maintenance” rating.
Risk warning: Demand in real estate and infrastructure markets is declining; international macroeconomic fluctuations; execution of false peak production is weaker than expected.
