加大研发投入力度，打造创新疫苗产品梯队：2023H1 公司研发投入10,581.33万元，同比增长55.17%。公司已布局mRNA 疫苗平台、重组蛋白VLP 疫苗平台、重组腺病毒疫苗平台、多糖蛋白结合疫苗平台、减毒活疫苗平台、灭活疫苗平台、新型疫苗佐剂平台等多个创新疫苗平台。进展较快的已于2023 年2 月在澳大利亚获得I 期临床试验许可，该疫苗适用于预防诺如病毒感染及其引起的急性肠胃炎，公司正积极推进该产品的临床研究及其他国家、地区临床申报。Event: the company released its semi-annual report in 2023, with operating income of 634 million yuan, year-on-year-3.84%, net profit of 248 million yuan, year-on-year-21.37%, non-return net profit of 234 million yuan, year-on-year-22.41%, operating net cash flow of 122 million yuan, from negative to positive. EPS (basic) 1.86 yuan. Performance is in line with market expectations.
Comments:
Workshop upgrade led to a reduction in issuance and a substantial improvement in sales rebates: 2023Q1~Q2, the company's quarterly operating income was 278 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 4.27% Maomi 9.34%; the net profit of returning to the mother was 143 million yuan,-22.24% and 20.72%, respectively; deducting the non-return net profit of 0.94 million yuan and 21.34% compared with the same period last year. 2023H1, the company issued 2.6364 million pieces of human diploid rabies vaccine,-32.36% compared with the same period last year. Due to the preventive maintenance of the company's workshop and the upgrade of the water system, the company stopped production from July 4, 2022 to September 19, 2022. Due to the characteristics of the production cycle of vaccine products, the batch signing of freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (human diploid cells) decreased in the first half of 2023 compared with the same period last year. ACYW135 group meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine solution workshop is under technical transformation and no batch is issued. The significant improvement in operating net cash flow was mainly due to 618 million yuan in cash received from the sale of goods and services, which was + 50.17% compared with the same period last year.
Increase R & D investment to create an echelon of innovative vaccine products: 2023H1 invested 105.8133 million yuan in R & D, an increase of 55.17% over the same period last year. The company has laid out a number of innovative vaccine platforms, such as mRNA vaccine platform, recombinant protein VLP vaccine platform, recombinant adenovirus vaccine platform, polysaccharide protein conjugate vaccine platform, live attenuated vaccine platform, inactivated vaccine platform, new vaccine adjuvant platform and so on. The rapid progress has been approved for Phase I clinical trials in Australia in February 2023. The vaccine is suitable for the prevention of norovirus infection and acute gastroenteritis. The company is actively promoting the clinical research of this product and clinical applications in other countries and regions.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: taking into account the suspension of production caused by the company's workshop maintenance and upgrading, as well as changes in the future market competition pattern, the net profit of 2023-2025 is reduced to RMB 6.32 billion (the original forecast is RMB 9.48-12.05-1.489 billion, down 33% and 32% respectively), and + 5.73% 30.40% 28.11% compared with the same period last year. According to the latest equity estimates, the EPS is 4.70, 6.12, and 7.85 yuan, respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE is 13-10-8. Considering that there is still huge room for the rabies track in the future, and the company's current valuation is low, the company maintains a "buy" rating.
Risk indicates the risk of fluctuations in market demand; the risk of lower-than-expected production and batch issuance; and the risk of deterioration of the competition pattern.
