Overview of the data
23H1 Yongan Futures achieved total operating income of 11.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.8%; gross profit of 4.1 billion yuan, an increase of 30.4% over the previous year. The net profit growth rate was higher than revenue mainly because impairment losses were 350 million yuan less than the same period last year; the weighted average return on net assets was 3.39%, an increase of 0.70 pct over the previous year.
brokerage
23H1's net brokerage business revenue decreased 9% year over year to 3.1 billion yuan, mainly because futures agent turnover fell 2% year on year to 767 million yuan, and commission rates continued to decline slightly amid market competition. The average daily equity of 23H1 customers was 48.72 billion yuan, up 7.6% year on year, driving interest income up 19% year on year.
On August 18, in response to reporters' questions on “revitalizing the capital market and boosting investor confidence,” the Securities Regulatory Commission mentioned studying and introducing new types of futures options, which is expected to increase the activity of the futures market and is conducive to an increase in agent turnover.
Risky business
23H1's risk management business revenue was 11.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, mainly due to the reduction in the scale of differential trade. In terms of market-making business, the company continues to expand product coverage and add market-making qualifications for various derivatives. 23H1 A total of 1,003 A-share non-financial listed companies issued announcements related to derivatives usage information, an increase of 13% over the previous year. The demand for risk hedging and hedging by physical enterprises continues to increase. The company is expected to grasp the risk management needs of physical enterprises, increase derivatives development efforts, improve personalized hedging plans for customers, improve personalized hedging plans for customers, and achieve business expansion while serving the real economy with risk management.
Wealth business
In terms of asset management, after the company liquidated or rectified some asset management products, the scale of asset management increased steadily. At the end of 23H1, the asset management scale increased by about 80% year-on-year to 3.184 billion yuan.
In terms of fund sales, 23H1 fund sales revenue decreased 58% year over year to 32 million yuan, mainly due to capital market fluctuations since 2022, and the net value of some asset management products has withdrawn. The company continues to promote the “Kunpeng Private Equity Growth Plan”, explore a wide range of outstanding private equity fund managers, and introduce 33 multi-strategy managers across futures, derivatives, stocks, and fixed income to further enrich and improve the product library.
Profit forecasting and valuation
23H1 Yongan Futures' net profit increased 30% year on year, mainly due to lower depreciation losses. Brokerage and risk businesses continue to be under pressure, but active capital market policies are expected to be introduced and corporate risk management requirements are increasing, and medium- to long-term companies are still expected to expand steadily. Due to the decline in the company's financial turnover and trade sales revenue in the first half of the year, the company's net profit forecast was lowered. The net profit growth rate for 2023-2025 is expected to be 37%/8%/15%, the corresponding BPS is 8.63/9.07/9.59 yuan per share, respectively, and the current price corresponds to PB1.99/1.90/1.79 times PB. Maintain the target price of $20.25 and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Fluctuations in capital markets; changes in exchange fee reduction policies.