- The projected fair value for Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech is CN¥34.32 based on Dividend Discount Model
- Current share price of CN¥37.44 suggests Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Industry average of 254% suggests Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech's peers are currently trading at a higher premium to fair value
Does the August share price for Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688298) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech
Is Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Fairly Valued?
We have to calculate the value of Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech slightly differently to other stocks because it is a biotechs company. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.0%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.9%. Compared to the current share price of CN¥37.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= CN¥1.7 / (7.9% – 3.0%)
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
- Dividend information for 688298.
- Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
- Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
- Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine 688298's earnings prospects.
- Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.
- See 688298's dividend history.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech, there are three essential items you should explore:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech that you need to consider before investing here.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.