2023H1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, H2 stapler collection will continue to sell, maintain the "buy" rating on August 21, 2023, the company released the semi-annual report of 2023: 2023H1 achieved operating income of 317 million yuan (+ 51.82%), return to the mother net profit of 91.7768 million yuan (+ 156.79%), deducted non-net profit of 82.1564 million yuan (+ 230.33%) Quarterly 2023Q1 income 158 million yuan (+ 61.55%), home net profit 50 million yuan (+ 421.76%), 2023Q2 income 159 million yuan (+ 43.27%), home net profit 42 million yuan (+ 59.66%); sub-product, stapler income 123 million yuan (+ 35.77%), conservation and other business income 194 million (+ 63.9%) By region, domestic income is 213 million (+ 42.19%) and overseas income is 98 million (+ 77.70%).
(1) there are four positive factors in the conservation business-the increase in the proportion of domestic income / the accumulation of a large demand for equipment replacement during the epidemic / the high-end replacement of equipment / discount policy support; (2) there are three positive factors in the stapler business-the increase in the amount of operation after the epidemic, the recovery of diagnosis and treatment, the increase in the number of admitted hospitals / the high growth overseas. Taking into account the long-term inertia of the demand for stock replacement and upgrading in the conservation business and the continuous promotion of the stapler collection policy, we maintain that the net profit of homing in 2023-2025 is RMB 256x359 million, EPS is RMB 0.63pm, and the current stock price is 25.2 / 17.9pm 12.7 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The cavity mirroring and electrification of stapler are the general trend, and the collection policy is expected to improve the electric kiss permeability and localization rate. At present, the electric mirror stapler track has low permeability, low localization rate, fast growth, large space and good competition pattern. There is still a big gap in the minimally invasive rate between China and the developed countries, minimally invasive surgery is a deterministic direction, and endoscopic stapler is an important surgical instrument for minimally invasive surgery, among which electric endoscopic stapler will be the trend of the times because of its clinical value. Stapler collection is expected to quickly increase the permeability of electric stapler and accelerate the promotion of domestic substitution, among which 15 provinces in Fujian have been implemented, such as Fujian, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Hubei and other provinces. Shanxi, Liaoning, Jilin and other provinces will implement the volume one after another, while Shandong, Hunan, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei alliance is ready to start.
Subsidiary Ville Kaidi market and technology precipitation for a long time, is expected to use the collection force to speed up the stapler volume company in 2018 to obtain the first electric mirror stapler registration certificate, there are 4 registration certificates, of which 1 Ⅲ class (only three in China), Ⅲ class certificate in the scope of application of the operation is better, can be closed severed blood vessels.
2023H1's annual revenue of electric mirror stapler was 101 million yuan (accounting for 82.24% of the stapler business), and launched the world's first intelligent fully automatic turning stapler, further raising the moat of the electric stapler track. At the same time, the company is expected to take advantage of the alliance and provincial collection to speed up access, quickly improve hospital coverage, break through the sales of weak provinces, and seize the share of importers. Part of the overseas stapler market has been hatched successfully, with a relatively low base, and is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.
Risk hint: the product promotion is not as expected, and the policy landing is not as expected.