Oulin Biological Co., Ltd. released its mid-2023 report: revenue in the first half of 2023 was 233 million yuan, up 0.21% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 29 million yuan, down 8.04% from the same period last year; and 20 million yuan was deducted from non-return net profit, down 22.74% from the same period last year.
In the second quarter of 2023, revenue reached 166 million yuan per quarter, down 7.17% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 25 million yuan, down 34.76% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 17 million yuan, down 47.81% from the same period last year.
Main points of investment
The tetanus vaccine continues to release, and the increase in R & D investment puts short-term pressure on the performance. In the future, with the rich varieties on the market, the profitability of 2023H1 is expected to enhance the revenue of 233 million yuan, an increase of 0.21% over the same period last year, which is basically the same as the same period last year. At present, the company has three products on the market, including adsorbed tetanus vaccine, Hib conjugate vaccine and AC conjugate vaccine, of which adsorbed tetanus vaccine is the core variety. Because the company opened up a new R & D pipeline compared with the same period last year, the investment in R & D increased, resulting in short-term pressure on the company's performance, and the return net profit decreased by 8.04%. In terms of other expenses, sales expenses decreased by 1.0113 million yuan, a decrease of 0.98% over the same period last year, while management expenses increased by 1.6445 million yuan, an increase of 5.23% over the same period last year. We believe that in the future, with the company's rich products and revenue, profitability is expected to increase.
Focus on the distribution of nosocomial vaccine, the third phase of Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is progressing smoothly, and the AC-Hib vaccine is about to be approved.
The company attaches importance to R & D, 2023H1, the company R & D staff reached 131, R & D personnel accounted for nearly 28%. Investment in R & D in the first half of the year was 60.07 million yuan, an increase of 64.95% over the same period last year. The company has a wealth of products in the research pipeline: ① AC-Hib combined vaccine is in the production registration stage; ② 's first global class 1 new drug recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine has entered phase Ⅲ clinical trials; ③ tetravalent influenza virus cleavage vaccine (MDCK cells), group A streptococcal vaccine, oral recombinant Helicobacter pylori vaccine (E. coli), Acinetobacter baumannii recombinant subunit vaccine and other products are in the preclinical research stage.
The company's orderly pipeline with multi-product reserves provides a beneficial guarantee for continuous innovation in the future.
Profit forecast
Recommendation logic: (1) the company adopts differentiated product development strategy, focusing on "adult vaccine, nosocomial vaccine and innovative vaccine", in which the clinical phase III of super drug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is progressing smoothly, and it is expected that the vaccine market will be broad in the future. Group A streptococcal vaccine and Acinetobacter baumannii vaccine in the pipeline are all vaccine varieties with high nosocomial infection rate. (2) adsorbed tetanus vaccine is the core product of the company at this stage, with the introduction of policy documents and expert consensus, sales are expected to continue to increase in the future; (3) the variety of the company on the market is gradually rich, and AC-hib is about to be approved, contributing to the performance increment of the company.
The company's performance declined sharply in 2022 due to the increase in R & D investment. We believe that the company's profitability will improve with the increase in revenue in 2023. It is estimated that the company's income from 2023 to 2025 will be 6.91,9.14 and 1.215 billion yuan respectively, the return net profit will be 72 million yuan, 124 million yuan and 208 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.18,0.30,0.51 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 97.2,56.9,33.90 times, giving a "buy" investment rating.
Risk hint
The risk of product sales falling short of expectations; the risk of increased market competition; the risk of industry policy; the risk of R & D projects falling short of expectations.