来水大幅偏枯，公司利润下滑明显。2023 年上半年公司完成发电量147.1 亿千瓦时，同比下滑36.03%，其中水电/火电/风电/光伏分别实现发电量113.3/21.7/10.1/2 亿千瓦时，同比分别增长-45.8%/97.5%/3.2%/472.1%。分季度来看，Q1/Q2 公司发电量分别同比下滑25.6%/43.7%，其中水电分别下滑32.7%/54.2%，水电发电量大幅下滑主因红水河流域今年上半年来水严重偏枯，1-6 月红水河流域来水较去年同期减少66%，较多年平均偏枯4 成。从电价的角度来看，与云南、四川等地水电相比，公司水电市场化比例较低，在过去几年电力供给过剩时有效保护了上网电价，但是近两年反而限制了公司电价上涨。我们判断南方区域电力供需格局将持续偏紧，叠加2021 年广西取消了水电丰水期降价10%等多项水电减利政策，在电力体制改革预期下，公司电价存在上行机遇。Events:
According to the company's semi-annual report of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 4.155 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, down 26.07% from the same period last year, and achieved a net profit of 913 million yuan, down 52.03% from the same period last year, which was lower than our expectations.
Main points of investment:
The incoming water has dried up sharply, and the company's profits have declined significantly. In the first half of 2023, the company completed 14.71 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity generation, down 36.03 percent from the same period last year, of which hydropower / thermal power / wind power / photovoltaic power generation achieved 113.3 kilowatt hours of 21.7 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of-45.8 percent, 97.5 percent, 3.2 percent, 472.1 percent, respectively. From a quarterly point of view, the power generation of Q1/Q2 fell by 25.6% and 43.7% respectively compared with the same period last year, of which hydropower was down by 32.7% and 54.2% respectively. The sharp decline in hydropower generation was mainly due to the serious drying up of water from the Hongshui River Basin in the first half of this year. From January to June, the inflow from the Hongshui River Basin decreased by 66% compared with the same period last year, with an average of 40% for many years. From the perspective of electricity price, compared with hydropower in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places, the proportion of hydropower marketization of the company is lower, which effectively protects the on-grid electricity price when there is a surplus of power supply in the past few years, but it has limited the rise of the company's electricity price in the past two years. We judge that the pattern of power supply and demand in the southern region will continue to be tight. Superimposed in 2021, Guangxi cancelled a number of hydropower profit reduction policies, such as a 10% reduction in the price of hydropower during the flood season. Under the expectation of power system reform, the company's electricity price has an upward opportunity.
The development of new energy will be accelerated and the second growth point will be opened up. By the end of June 2023, the company has installed wind power of 766000 kilowatts and photovoltaic capacity of 35.66 million kilowatts. In terms of project reserves, the company has announced plans to invest in new energy projects of 2.99 million kilowatts since 2021, including wind power of 556000 kilowatts and photovoltaic of 2.436 million kilowatts. Specifically, the announcement plans to invest 410000 kilowatts of photovoltaic and 100000 kilowatts of wind power projects in 2021, and 1.087 million kilowatts of photovoltaic and 206000 kilowatts of wind power projects in 2022. From January to August 2023, the company announced plans to invest 938000 kilowatts of photovoltaic and 250000 kilowatts of wind power. The company's new energy investment plan is accelerated year by year, but only 664000 kilowatts were put into production from 2021 to 2022. It is expected that the company's new energy installation is expected to grow rapidly in the late period of the 14th five-year Plan. If all planned projects are put into production, the company's new energy scale will increase by 2-3 times. From the point of view of the rate of return, the total investment internal rate of return of these project companies is relatively high, with wind power projects above 10% and photovoltaic projects at 6% and 7%.
In 2023, the countertrend dividend is 0.08 yuan per share, and the allocation value is outstanding. The company has maintained a high dividend rate in recent years, with dividend rates of 70.85%, 68.18%, 87.45% and 49.1% respectively in 2019-2022. In the first half of 2023, the company proposed a dividend per share of 0.08 yuan per share (including tax). The corresponding dividend rate is 69% (cash dividend amount / half-year net profit), and the dividend ratio is in the forefront of the hydropower sector. Profit forecast and valuation: taking into account the company's water inflow and new energy business expansion, we reduce the company's 2023-2024 homing net profit forecast to 22.14 yuan and 3.045 billion yuan respectively (28.5 yuan and 3.06 billion yuan respectively before the adjustment). The new 2025 homing net profit forecast is 3.201 billion yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to PE of 19 times, 14 times and 13 times respectively, considering that the company's current valuation is lower than the industry level. Maintain a "buy" rating? Risk hint: the incoming water is not as expected, and the progress of new energy projects is not as expected.
