Event
According to the semi-annual report released by the company in 2023, 1H23 achieved an operating income of 3.37 billion yuan / year-on-year + 48.8% and a net profit of 583 million yuan / year-on-year + 807.6%.
The passenger flow data of Sanya is strong, and the overall airport business has benefited from the high domestic travel market in 2019. 1H23's airport business achieved revenue of 960 million yuan / year-on-year + 47.5%, an increase of 1.2% over 2019. 1H23's airports achieved 889,000 takeoffs and landings, 13.11 million passengers and 75000 tons of cargo and mail, which recovered to 115.9%, 109.9% and 106.4% respectively in the same period in 2019. Sanya Phoenix Airport, the core airport, achieved 689,000 aircraft takeoffs and landings / recovered to 111.7% in the same period in 2019, 11.243 million passengers / returned to 108% in the same period in 2019, and 59000 tons in cargo and postal throughput to 97.6% in the same period in 2019. Considering that Sanya will usher in the peak tourist season in Q3-Q4, 2H23's airport business is expected to maintain rapid growth.
Duty-free business increased by 22% compared with the same period last year, and the new duty-free area of Sanya Airport is expected to achieve 140 million / year-on-year-41.2% income from 1H23's tax-free business this year, mainly affected by the change in statistical caliber. Comprehensive calculation estimates that the company's tax-free-related business income is + 22% compared with the same period last year. At present, the second phase of the duty-free shop at Sanya Phoenix Airport has completed the processing of warrants, investment promotion and decoration, and is promoting the examination and approval of the operating qualifications of dutiable goods. It is expected that the new duty-free business will accumulate 5000 yuan after opening.
Real estate business accelerated removal, income, contract amount increased significantly compared with the same period last year. 1H23 real estate business achieved remarkable results, achieving real estate income of 1.52 billion / year-on-year + 140.8%. Among them, the signed area of real estate sales projects is 37000 square meters, + 59% compared with the same period last year, and the signed amount is 570 million yuan, + 55% compared with the same period last year. In other business, the company's property business is 352 million / year-on-year-14.4%, and other business is 399 million / year-on-year + 19%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
The company is the core asset of Hainan Free Trade Port, which is located in many transportation hubs and deeply bound with duty-free operators, and is expected to fully benefit from the construction of free trade port and the tax-free development of outlying islands. It is estimated that the company's 2023-25 return net profit is 11.3,17.0 and 2.09 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 48X, 32X and 26X respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: the growth of Hainan tourism market slows down; tax-free sales on outlying islands are lower than expected.