The company's production and sales increased significantly in the first half of 2023, and the decline in coal prices obviously led to a certain decline in performance.
In the second quarter, the company's production and sales fell, the price and cost fell compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin fell 11pcts. The company plans to strongly implement various cost control measures in the second half of the year. Consider the company's future coal production capacity to release space, maintain the "buy" rating.
First-half net profit fell 23 per cent from a year earlier. The company's operating income / net profit in the first half of 2023 was 41.48 million yuan respectively (year-on-year changes were-1.57% and 23.33% respectively). The net profit declined greatly, mainly due to the continuous decline in coal prices. EPS is 0.49 yuan, year-on-year change-36.36%. The net profit after deducting non-profit was 660 million yuan, a year-on-year change of-29.0%. Among them, Q2 achieved a net profit of 278 million yuan in a single quarter (- 35.38% compared with the same period last year,-54.41% compared with the same period last year). In addition to the continued decline in coal prices, the significant decline in sales volume also contributed.
Q2 coal plate gross profit margin fell 30%, methanol plate is still losing money. In the first half of the year, the company's coal production / sales volume was 84853 million tons (year-on-year change + 25.45% plus 26.33%), unit price was 447.86 yuan / ton (year-on-year-24.30%, decrease was about 143.78 yuan / ton), unit sales cost was 195.30 yuan / ton (year-on-year-14.67%), gross profit per ton of coal was about 252.56 yuan (year-on-year-30.38%). In the first half of the year, the unit selling price and unit cost of methanol were 2,253.11 yuan per ton (year-on-year change of-8.00% /-13.35% respectively), and the railway shipping volume was 3.1016 million tons (year-on-year change of-14.59%). Among them, Q2 coal sales volume is 4.0839 million tons (month-on-month-7.21%, year-on-year-4.48%), unit price 420.34 yuan / ton (month-on-month-11.21%, year-on-year-29.49%), unit cost of sales 197.18 yuan / ton (month-on-month + 1.87%, year-on-year-7.76%), coal gross profit margin 53.09% (year-on-year change-11.05pcts). The unit selling price and unit cost of Q2 methanol are 1,829.45 pesos and 2,165.37 yuan / ton respectively (month-on-month changes are-1.82% and 8.90% respectively). Although the gross profit of methanol plate increased by 7.80% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, the plate as a whole is still in a state of loss.
The company continues to release its production capacity and adhere to the strategy of coordinated development of regions and industries. According to the company's semi-annual report, according to the relevant regulations of the national policy, the approved production capacity of Gaojialiang Coal Mine has increased from 7.5 million tons / year to the current 8.5 million tons / year; Hongdunzi Coal Industry Hongyi Coal Mine has been put into joint trial operation. Honger Coal Mine is expected to be put into production by the end of 2023; the company has set the planning target of 30 million tons of coal production capacity by the end of the 14th five-year Plan, and is actively looking for high-quality coal mine projects in areas rich in coal resources. In Inner Mongolia Autonomous region and Ningxia Hui Autonomous region, the company has completed and put into operation projects such as Gaojialiang Coal Mine, Hongqingliang Coal Mine, Hongdunzi Coal Industry, Cathay Pacific Coal methanol and East Copper Railway, and the industrial layout and industrial chain of "coal-chemical-transportation" have been initially formed.
Risk factors: methanol business long-term loss; coal production capacity expansion is lower than expected; coal price decline.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: taking into account the downward expectation of coal prices and the pace of the company's production capacity release, we downgrade the company's 2023-2025 EPS forecast to 0.86 yuan 0.86 yuan (0.86 yuan) (the original forecast 0.99 pound 0.95 pound 0.98 yuan).
The current stock price is 5.73 yuan, which corresponds to 6.7pm / 6.7x in 2023 / 2025. Select Meijin Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry and Yanzhou Mining Energy, which are also deeply engaged in coal and coal chemical business, as comparable companies. According to the average valuation level of 8 times PE in 2023 (wind consensus expectation), we value the company 8 times PE in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 7 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.