Core ideas:
According to the company's 23 mid-year report, the 23H1 net profit before and after deducting non-return was + 177.9% and + 463.5% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the non-return net profit reached the highest level in the first half of 2012. The company's 23H1 revenue and net profit before and after deducting non-return are 288.5 yuan, 6.1 yuan and 410 million yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year. + 24.5%, + 177.9%, + 463.5% and + 463.5% 22Q2, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The wholesale sales of 23H1/23Q2 cars of the company were + 21.5%, 30.5% and 30.5% respectively compared with the same period last year, and 61000 vehicles were exported from the company, which was + 30.8% compared with the same period last year. The company's revenue and sales are basically in sync. The company's 23H1 gross profit margin and net profit margin are respectively year-on-year-0.7pct and + 1.2pct.
The company has shown good cost control ability. 23H1 labor cost + depreciation amortization of 2.38 billion yuan, + 7.5% year-on-year, year-on-year growth rate is lower than revenue. The company's 23H1 labor cost rate is-0.8pct year-on-year; depreciation and amortization rate is-0.5pct year-on-year; sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates are year-on-year-0.9pct,-0.2pct, + 0.1pct,-0.2pct respectively. At the end of 23H1, the company's interest-bearing debt ratio was 8.5%, year-on-year-6.1pct, month-on-month-0.1pct, the lowest since the end of Q3 in 2015.
The net profit of 23H1 Foton increased significantly compared with the same period last year. The revenue of 23H1 Fukuda Daimler, Fukuda Cummins and ZF Foton is + 39.9%, + 21.4% and + 223.5% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is-39.0%, 0.4% and 324.6% respectively. 23H1 Fukuda Zaifu has revenue of 120 million and net profit of-16 million. The net profit of Fukuda Zaifu in 2022 is-44 million yuan. The improvement of AMT penetration in the light truck industry and the climbing of the company's light AMT sales are worthy of attention.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the inflection point of industry sales is basically established, and the total inventory is healthy. The company adheres to the strategy of "focusing on commercial vehicles" and "lean operation" and the two core indicators of "market share" and "profit margin", aligns the interests of management with minority shareholders through employee stock ownership plans, has been focusing on improving ROE in the past few years, and has obvious revenue side Alpha in the future, which is expected to become the leading company in the automobile industry in this round of state-owned enterprise reform. It is estimated that the EPS for 23-25 years will be 0.190.31 cents per share, with a reasonable value of 6.0yuan per share, corresponding to 31 times of the 23-year PE, and maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: declining prosperity of the industry, rising prices of raw materials, intensified competition in the industry, and so on.