JD HEALTH(6618.HK):SOFTER REVENUE ON POST-COVID NORMALISATION;L-T VISION INTACT
JD HEALTH(6618.HK):SOFTER REVENUE ON POST-COVID NORMALISATION;L-T VISION INTACT
JDH's 1H23 total revenue increased by 34% YoY to RMB27.1bn, -2% below consensus/ BOCIe. 12-month annual active customer (AAC) further rose to 168.6m as of end June. IFRS/ Non-IFRS NPM expanded to historical high at 5.8%/ 9.0% on GPM rebound, improved opex efficiency and interest income. We expect softer near- to mid-term revenue on post-Covid normalisation, weak macro on core direct sales businesses and their new initiatives' monetisations which are yet to bear fruits. But we believe their committed strategic priorities, investment plans and L-T vision remain intact. Maintain BUY but cut our DCF TP to HK$65.0.
JDH23年上半年的總收入同比增長34％，至271億元人民幣，低於共識/BocIe的-2％。截至6月底，12個月的年度活躍客戶（AAC）進一步增長至1.686億人。由於GPM反彈、運營效率和利息收入的提高，國際財務報告準則/非國際財務報告準則的NPM擴大至5.8％/9.0％的歷史新高。我們預計，由於後COVID的正常化，近期至中期收入將疲軟，核心直銷業務的宏觀疲軟以及尚未取得成效的新舉措的獲利舉措。但我們認爲，他們承諾的戰略優先事項、投資計劃和長期願景仍然完好無損。維持買入，但將差價合約目標價下調至65.0港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Intact strategies despite N-T pressure on post-Covid normalisation. We expect softer near- to mid-term revenue mainly on swifter and larger-than- expected Post-covid normalisation and weak macro. However, we deem Co will remain dedicated on their L-T visions by consistently executing their operational strategies and investment plans. We see user growth, supply chain management and improved efficiency are their 3 most important priorities in the near- to mid-term. We believe Co. will continue to i) enrich products/ services offerings; ii) offer high quality products/ services with competitive prices and supportive policies; iii) accelerate omni-channel/ O2O initiatives; iv) conduct branding campaigns especially in low-tier cities and offline consumption scenarios; v) make effective channel investments; and vi) deepen partnerships for user growth and brand awareness. Furthermore, Co. will keep optimise organizational structure for improved efficiency. Thus, we cut our near- to mid-term 2023/24/25E total revenue by -12%/-19%/-21% to factor in more profound post-Covid normalisation by scaling back our ARPU forecasts but maintaining our AAC forecasts. We largely keep our 2023-25E GPM forecasts unchanged while raising our 2023-25E bottom line estimations mainly to reflect our latest opex and non-operational item estimations, especially on interest income.
儘管COVID後正常化面臨N-T壓力，但策略仍然完好無損。我們預計短期至中期收入將疲軟，這主要是由於COVID後正常化速度更快、規模大於預期，以及宏觀經濟疲軟。但是，我們認爲Co將通過持續執行其運營戰略和投資計劃，繼續致力於其L-T願景。我們認爲，在短期到中期，用戶增長、供應鏈管理和提高效率是他們的三個最重要的優先事項。我們相信，Co. 將繼續i) 豐富產品/服務；ii) 以具有競爭力的價格和支持政策提供高質量的產品/服務；iii) 加快全渠道/O2O 計劃；iv) 開展品牌宣傳活動，尤其是在低線城市和線下消費場景；v) 進行有效的渠道投資；以及 vi) 深化合作夥伴關係，促進用戶增長和品牌知名度。此外，Co. 將繼續優化組織結構以提高效率。因此，我們將2023/24/25E的近中期總收入削減了-12％/-19％/-21％，通過縮減ARPU預測但維持AAC的預測，將COVID後更深刻的正常化考慮在內。我們在很大程度上維持2023-25年度的GPM預測不變，同時提高2023-25年度的利潤預期，主要是爲了反映我們最新的運營支出和非運營項目估計，尤其是對利息收入的估計。
1H23 results: Topline miss but beat margin. Total revenue of RMB27.1bn(up 34% YoY) was -2% below consensus/ BOCIe. Product and service revenues were RMB23.2bn and RMB3.9bn, up by 34% and 44% YoY respectively. 12- month AAC further increased to 168.6m as of end June. GPM rose 1.1ppts YoY to 22.9%, beating consensus mainly on structural product mix shift and improved supply chain efficiency. IFRS/ Non-IFRS NPM reach historical high at 5.8%/ 9.0% on GPM rebound, improved opex efficiency and interest income (vs. 1.1%/ 6.0% in 1H22).
2023 年上半年業績：Topline 失誤但超過了利潤。總收入爲人民幣271億元（同比增長34％），比共識/BocIe低-2％。產品和服務收入爲人民幣232億元和39億元人民幣，分別同比增長34％和44％。截至6月底，12個月的AAC進一步增長至1.686億元。GPM同比上漲1.1個百分點至22.9％，主要由於結構性產品組合的轉移和供應鏈效率的提高，超過了市場預期。由於GPM反彈，運營支出效率和利息收入有所提高，國際財務報告準則/非國際財務報告準則的NPM達到5.8％/9.0％的歷史新高（而22年上半年爲1.1％/6.0％）。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside risks: i) regulations; ii) Covid-normalisation; iii) destructive investments; iv) less support from JD Group; and v) fierce competition.
下行風險：i) 監管；ii) COVID正常化；iii) 破壞性投資；iv) 京東集團的支持減少；(v) 競爭激烈。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。