23Q2 income / homing net profit year-on-year + 11.2% Universe 15.1%, maintain "buy"
The company released 23 mid-year report: 23H1 realized income / return net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 8.2% and 11.1%, of which Q2 realized income / return net profit of 630 million yuan and + 11.2%, respectively. 15.1%. 23H1 has announced that the winning bid / contract amount has reached 2.89 billion yuan (only 60 million yuan in the same period of 22 years). The accelerated release of on-hand and newly signed orders is expected to lead to the growth of the company's performance, maintaining the company's 23-25 home return net profit forecast of 50,000,000 yuan (CAGR+25.6%), comparable to the company's 23-year Wind consensus expected average 0.64xPEG. We believe that the high barrier pattern of the rail transit design industry where the company is located is better, and the stock transformation is expected to bring new growth space, maintain the provision of 0.7xPEG for 23 years, maintain the target price of 22.55 yuan, and maintain "buy".
The business of planning consulting and general contracting grew rapidly, and the gross profit margin of survey and design business significantly increased 23H1's survey and design / planning consulting / project general contracting income of 10.5 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year. Planning consulting and general contracting business grew rapidly. From a regional point of view, the income of 23H1 in Guangdong Province / outside Guangdong Province is 92100 million yuan, which is 33.1% more than the same period last year. The acceleration of rail transit construction in Dawan area has led to a significant increase in the company's provincial order revenue. 23H1 has a gross profit margin of 39.3%, year-on-year + 3.1pct, survey and design business gross margin of 42.3%, year-on-year + 5.1pct. We expect that the proportion of high-quality projects in the province will increase, and the company has local advantages as the leader of rail transit design in the province. 23H1's provincial business gross profit margin of 44.7%, year-on-year + 8.8pct.
During the period, the expense rate increased slightly compared with the same period last year, and the operating cash flow was under pressure.
The expense rate during the 23H1 period is 14.4%, year-on-year + 1.8pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 2.6%, 7.0%, 5.3%, 0.6%, and + 0.6/-0.3/+0.8/+0.7pct, respectively. The increase in sales expense rate is mainly due to the increase in staff salaries and bidding fees. The net profit rate of 23H1 is 17.3%, which is + 0.4pct compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase of gross profit margin. At the end of 23H1, the company's asset-liability ratio / interest-bearing debt ratio was 54.4%, 6.6%, year-on-year + 0.5/+6.0pct, of which the increase in interest-bearing debt ratio was mainly due to an increase in short-term borrowing. 23H1 operating net cash flow-600 million yuan, year-on-year-190 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in cash paid from operating activities.
With a forward-looking layout of energy saving, environmental protection and new energy storage, the transformation of villages in Guangzhou is expected to benefit from 23H1's orderly development of 45 overall general contracting and design general contracting lines and 13 consulting lines in 46 cities across the country, and has successively won new projects in 11 cities in Guangzhou, and its market competitiveness has been continuously consolidated. On the basis of optimizing and strengthening the core business of rail transit design, 23H1 wholly-owned Guangzhou Kehui Energy Company and participated in the establishment of Guangzhou Energy Storage Group, in-depth layout of rail transit energy conservation and environmental protection and new energy storage industry new business, is expected to expand new profit growth points. According to the Guangzhou government, Guangzhou plans to complete 200 billion yuan of fixed asset investment in urban renewal in 23 years, and Guangzhou Metro Group, the controlling shareholder of the company in 23 years, has become one of the first batch of seven municipal "land-making" subjects. as the core design subsidiary of Guangzhou Metro Group, the company is expected to deeply participate in the reconstruction of villages in Guangzhou in the future.
Risk hint: the progress of the project is not as expected; the rail transit construction is not as expected; the stock transformation is not as expected.