Main points of investment:

Event: Yongtai Yun released the 2023 semi-annual report, the company's performance is basically in line with expectations. Under the influence of international shipping container rates, the prosperity of the chemical industry and the exchange rate, the net profit attributed to the owner of the parent company in the first half of 2023 was 103 million yuan, down 25.48 per cent compared with the same period last year.

In the first half of 2023, the price index of China's chemical products dropped more than that in 2022, but it has bottomed out in the third quarter and rebounded in the third quarter, and the chemical industry is expected to improve in the second half of the year. In the first half of 2023, the average price index of Chinese chemical products was about 4660 points, down about 26% from the second quarter of 2022. As of August 18, 2023, the price index of China's chemical products has reached 4670 points, up 10% from June, and the month-on-month improvement is obvious. It is expected that the chemical industry will continue to pick up in the second half of 2023.

The volume of service boxes in the cross-border chemical logistics supply chain maintained a high growth, with an increase of 32% over the same period last year. The high increase in business volume was effectively hedged with the decline in gross profit margin. In the first half of 2023, the total service box volume of each business segment of the company was 109,000 TEU, including 67200 TEU for cross-border chemical logistics supply chain, 213,000 TEU for warehousing and 2505 TEU for transportation. From the cross-border chemical logistics supply chain plate, the business volume increased by 32% compared with the same period last year.

The acquisition of 60% stake in Ruibolong will comprehensively enhance the company's industrial layout in North China and the Bohai Rim, and provide an important support for the company to enhance its core competitiveness in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Ruibolong is an enterprise specializing in contract logistics, mainly providing customized digital logistics solutions to customers in chemical industry, new energy and other industries. Customers are mainly large multinational chemical companies such as BASF, Hansen and WACKER Chemical, with solid business capabilities and strong customer base. This acquisition is expected to expand the company's business scope in North China and improve its customer service capacity.

Combined with the company's 2023 semi-annual report, maintain the "buy" rating: combined with the company's 2023 semi-annual report, maintain the company's 2023E-2025E homing net profit forecast of 3.21,4.40 and 557 million yuan. The corresponding PE was as much as in 12-9-7. Maintain Yongtai Yun's "buy" rating.

Risk hint: policy risk, safety operation risk, third-party dangerous chemical logistics demand is less than expected risk, restricted stock lifting risk.