Investment tips for this issue:

Shipping: the impact of the attack time of the Oman tanker is positive, and the inflection point of freight rate may have appeared. Clarkson VLCCTCE rose 26% to $11992 a day this week. The impact of the Oman tanker incident is positive, with the price of the FFA contract for delivery in July rising to $25000 per day. Following the follow-up premium increases, shipowners are less willing to enter and leave the Strait of Holmes, and prices are more likely to rise in the near future. at the same time, crude oil exports from the Middle East or diversion to long-distance West Africa, Caribbean and Brazil further boost demand for tons of nautical miles. The sulfur limit order entered the verification period, and the number of ships waiting to install desulfurization towers rose to 18% from 10% in February. Since July, the number of ships installed with desulphurization towers is expected to decrease by 1-2% in a single month, superimposed by the Oman tanker incident, and the inflection point in the off-peak season may have occurred. CurrentCosco sea energyH shares are oversold and continue to be bullish.Investment promotion steamship, Cosco Haineng. In terms of transportation, this week's SCFI reported 779 points, a slight drop of 0.5%. The ability of short-term leading capacity to control guaranteed freight rates has been confirmed once again, there is no risk of huge losses, sulfur restrictions make superimposed IFRS16 operating leases and tables, will further aggravate the situation of bibcock differentiation. Keep watching.COSCO Shipping HoldingsH shares, considering that the net assets sold by OOCL Terminal have increased by about 20%, the current price-to-book ratio is less than 100%, the lowest level since the 16-year restructuring.

Express delivery: from January to May 2019, the number of express delivery orders increased by 24.9% compared with the same period last year, of which the growth rate in May was 25.2%. From May, the monthly increase is expected to be 1.03 billion, the largest monthly increase so far this year. In addition to the pull of the "double online Shopping Festival" from the end of April to the beginning of May, a large number of fresh fruits were on the market in May, and the business volume in the main fruit producing areas soared. On the other hand, inPingduoduoDriven by new e-commerce platforms, etc.Agricultural productsThe rate of online shopping continued to rise, with the overall express business volume in rural areas 7 percentage points higher than that in cities in May. In terms of industry concentration, the market share of the top five in 2019Q1 has increased from 59% in the same period last year to 69% this year, and the combined market share of the top five has increased by 10 percentage points. Behind the increase in industry concentration is still second-and third-line express delivery lagging behind. Since 2019, three small and medium-sized express delivery companies have successively withdrawn from the small parcel market. Overall, we judge that the exit speed of small and medium-sized companies from the market will exceed market expectations, and the ability of headquarters cost control will eventually affect the competitiveness of the end, which is still an important observation index for investing in access express stocks in the short term. For e-commerce express delivery in the first half of the year, we are optimistic about the biggest drop in single ticket cost.Yuantong ExpressThe performance growth is the most stableYunda shares。

Aviation: this week, various aviation departments have released operating data in May, the occupancy rate has obvious signs of stabilization, and the relationship between supply and demand is gradually balanced. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated obviously this week, but the base was high in June last year, the cost pressure of oil prices fell sharply during the peak season, and the pressure on the cost side slowed down. After the implementation of the lease standard, the consolidation of operating leases leads to the increase of exchange rate flexibility, and the exchange rate has become one of the important indicators affecting performance. Although external factors have a direct impact on the exchange rate, it is still necessary to observe whether the introduction of aircraft will be affected after the friction continues to evolve, and then affect the deceleration of supply. FAA has been establishedJoint technologyEvaluation agencies, jointly evaluate the safety of the MACS system, there is still no news of FAA approval, and the probability of 737MAX flying again before the end of October is low. With the continuous progress of supply-side reform, the profitability of the Aviation Division is still in a long-term rising channel, coupled with the civil aviation development fund charging standards since July, the profits of the three major airlines have directly increased by 500 million to 700 million, and performance flexibility is still being gradually realized. We continue to focus on recommending more stable performance.Air China Limited。

Railway and highway ports: the average daily transport capacity of the Daqin line in May is 1.285 million tons, which is impacted by the sudden drop in demand for thermal coal in the short term, so there is no need to be pessimistic in the long run. The impact of the sudden increase in hydropower in the south in May and the sudden drop in thermal power demand. In May, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was only 585000 tons, down 18.9% from the same period last year, resulting in a surge in inventories in Qinhuangdao and Caofeidian ports and a short-term impact on the transfer of coal on the Daqin line. Transport volume fell in late May; however, in the long run, the general trend of demand brought about by the adjustment of public transfer iron and coal source structure remains unchanged, and there is no need to be pessimistic. From the perspective of investmentDaqin RailwayThere is still dividend allocation value. In addition, the railway sector suggested in the past 19 years that we should pay attention to the block market brought about by railway asset securitization and continue to be optimistic that there is room for valuation and repair.Guangzhou-Shenzhen RailwayHigh-speed plate, on the one hand, it is recommended to allocate high cash dividend ratio for long-term defense.Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway、Guangdong Expressway AOn the other hand, it is suggested that the bottom layout is not restricted by the region and the national layout of the high-speed investment operation leader.Investment promotion highwayIn addition, in the port sector, it is suggested that relying on the volume on the Wati line and the production of high-quality steel base, the throughput deterministic upstream performance has room for doubling.Rizhao PortAnd the relatively high performance growth brought about by the extension of the beneficiary industrial chain while the dividend needs to be repairedQingdao Port。

Risk tip: economic growth is lower than expected.