上游原材料铜材价格有所回落，带动公司盈利向上。公司原材料中铜材占比较大，在成本结构中占比约80%。2023 年上半年电解铜价格有所回落，23Q1、23Q2 电解铜均价分别为6.8 万元/吨和6.75 万元/吨，相比去年同期分别下降4.4%和6.4%。成本端原材料价格回落，带动公司盈利向上。23H1 公司毛利率为11.96%，同比+0.97pct。分业务来看，普通线毛利率为11.35%，同比+0.94pct；新能源线毛利率为18.79%，同比+2.31pct。Event: according to the company's semi-annual report of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.567 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, + 29.76% year-on-year; net profit of 81 million yuan, + 62.1%; and deduction of non-net profit of 77 million yuan, + 52.1%.
Comments:
Industry expansion + pattern optimization, 23Q2 revenue and net profit double increase, the company's performance is good. The company's 23Q2 realized revenue of 828 million yuan, year-on-year + 39.6%, month-on-month + 12.0%; return to the mother net profit of 45 million yuan, + 101.3%, month-on-month + 25.0%. From a business point of view, 23H1's ordinary line achieved revenue of 1.36 billion yuan, + 29.1% compared with the same period last year, and revenue of the new energy line reached 140 million yuan, + 24.03% of the same period last year. Under the trend of electric intelligence, the demand for new high-voltage lines and data lines has greatly increased the value of automobile cables and bicycles from 1000 yuan for traditional fuel vehicles to 1500-2000 yuan for electric vehicles, and the scale of the industry has doubled. Under the background of industry expansion, the joint venture cable factory is strategically shrinking the cable business with low profit margin, and the local cable manufacturers usher in the opportunity of domestic substitution. As a local cable leading enterprise, the company has strong first-mover advantages in products, customers and production capacity, and is expected to fully enjoy the industry dividend and take the lead by virtue of the first-mover advantage.
Upstream raw material copper prices have fallen, driving the company's profits up. Copper accounts for a large proportion of the company's raw materials, accounting for about 80% of the cost structure. The price of electrolytic copper fell somewhat in the first half of 2023. The average price of electrolytic copper in 23Q1 and 23Q2 was 68,000 yuan / ton and 675,000 yuan / ton respectively, down 4.4% and 6.4% respectively compared with the same period last year. The price of raw materials on the cost side fell, driving up the company's profits. 23H1's gross profit margin is 11.96%, year-on-year + 0.97pct. From a business point of view, the gross profit margin of the ordinary line is 11.35%, year-on-year + 0.94 pct, and that of the new energy line is 18.79%, year-on-year + 2.31pct.
The proposed equity incentive scheme demonstrates the company's long-term confidence in development. On August 18, 2023, the company issued a draft equity incentive for a total of 129 people, including middle-level managers and core employees (excluding independent directors, supervisors and foreign employees), with a total of 1.647 million shares issued, accounting for 1.86% of the total share capital. We believe that this incentive plan covers a large number of employees, which can fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the employees and demonstrate the long-term development confidence of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that the company will benefit from electrification, intelligence and import substitution in the medium and long term, and its performance is expected to continue to grow. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 240 million yuan, 350 million yuan and 490 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 2.66,3.90,5.52 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE is 19.2,13.1 and 9.2 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the sales of new energy vehicles are not as expected; the promotion of special cables is not as expected; the risk of rising prices of upstream raw materials.
