Revenue is flat compared with the same period last year, and investment in research and development is increased. The company's 2023H1 realized revenue of 233 million yuan (year-on-year + 0.2%), net profit of 28.55 million yuan (year-on-year), and non-return net profit of 20.09 million yuan (year-on-year-22.7%). In a single quarter, 2023Q1/Q2 achieved revenue of 67 million yuan / 166 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 24.9% and 7.2%, respectively, and realized net profit of 3.85 million yuan / 24.69 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year.
The total R & D investment of 2023H1 company reached 60.07 million yuan (year-on-year + 65.0%), of which the expended R & D investment was 41.57 million yuan (year-on-year + 31.8%), mainly due to the promotion of tetravalent influenza split vaccine (MDCK cell) project; capitalized R & D investment was 18.5 million yuan (year-on-year + 280.1%), mainly due to the acceleration of clinical trials of recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine Ph3. In addition, the company group A streptococcal vaccine, oral recombinant Helicobacter pylori vaccine (Escherichia coli), Acinetobacter baumannii recombinant subunit vaccine and so on are in the preclinical stage.
The "superbug" vaccine is ahead of schedule and is expected to fill the global gap. Drug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus is a "superbug" recognized by WHO, which can cause serious nosocomial infection. It is a high incidence area in China, with an average detection rate of about 30% in recent years. Drug resistance leads to the ineffectiveness of existing antibiotic treatment schemes, and prophylactic vaccine is an effective means to control its transmission. at present, there are no commercial products on the market. Overseas giants such as Pfizer and Merck have failed in the late clinical stage. The company cooperated with the Army Medical University to develop recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, summed up overseas clinical failure experience, and adopted the optimization antigen and immune program design of "multi-valent + multi-dose + adjuvant". At present, Ph3 clinical has been launched. It is expected to go public in 2025, leading the world in progress.
Investment advice: cover for the first time and give an "overweight" rating
Olin Biology is a "small and beautiful" private vaccine enterprise, relying on the old product tetanus vaccine to open up a new adult market, with the continuous improvement of domestic policies, the adult tetanus vaccine market is expected to further expand; AC-Hib triple vaccine production, enrich the children's vaccine product pipeline, contribute to the future performance increment Long-term layout of the "superbug" vaccine pipeline, recombinant Staphylococcus aureus to start Ph3 clinical, the world's leading progress, is expected to fill the industry gap. It is estimated that the company's income from 2023 to 2025 will be 630 pounds, 833 pounds, 1.14 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit from the parent company is 0.71 hundred and thirty-four hundred million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to the PE of 92 pounds, 4929x. Combined with absolute valuation and relative valuation, we believe that the reasonable share price range of the company is 17.88 to 19.16 yuan, which is 10% to 18% higher than the current stock price. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: valuation risk, profit forecast risk, risk of failure in research and development of products under development, risk of major policy changes, etc.