半导体硅片业务2023H1 经营承压。公司半导体硅片业务2023H1 收入7.55 亿元，同比下降18.48%；分季度来看，第一季度营业收入3.53 亿元，第二季度营业收入4.02 亿元，环比增长13.97%。公司部分募投项目自2022 年6 月开始陆续转产，相应的折旧费用等固定成本增加较多，但自2022 年下半年以来，受消费电子市场需求下滑影响，硅抛光片产能利用率下降，部分硅片产品价格有所下调。由于受经济疲弱影响，衢州基地的12 英寸硅片仍处于产能爬坡中；2022年3 月份收购了嘉兴金瑞泓，产能处于爬坡过程中。2023 年上半年，受益于功率半导体需求稳定，公司硅外延片产能利用率充足。Event: in the first half of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.342 billion yuan, down 14% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 174 million yuan, down 66% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 50 million yuan, down 89% from the same period last year.
2023Q2, the company realized income of 710 million yuan, down 12% from the same period last year; realized return net profit of 139 million yuan, down 48% from the same period last year; and realized non-return net profit of 27 million yuan, down 88% from the same period last year. In the first half of 2023, the company's non-recurrent profit and loss was 124 million yuan, of which the government subsidy was 109 million yuan.
Comments:
Semiconductor wafer business 2023H1 operates under pressure. The company's semiconductor wafer business 2023H1 revenue was 755 million yuan, down 18.48% from the same period last year. Quarterly revenue was 353 million yuan in the first quarter and 402 million yuan in the second quarter, up 13.97% from the previous quarter. Some of the company's fund-raising projects have been switched to production since June 2022, and the corresponding fixed costs such as depreciation expenses have increased a lot, but since the second half of 2022, due to the decline in demand in the consumer electronics market, the capacity utilization of silicon polishing wafers has declined, and the prices of some silicon wafer products have been reduced. Due to the weak economy, the 12-inch silicon wafer in Quzhou is still in the process of climbing capacity, and Jiaxing Jinruihong was acquired in March 2022. In the first half of 2023, due to the stable demand for power semiconductors, the company has sufficient capacity utilization of silicon epitaxial wafers.
Semiconductor power devices business 2023H1 fell slightly. The company's semiconductor power device business 2023H1 revenue was 538 million yuan, down 10.69% from the same period last year. Quarterly revenue was 258 million yuan in the first quarter and 280 million yuan in the second quarter, up 8.37% from the previous quarter. Centering on the two major product categories of photovoltaic and vehicle regulations, the company gives priority to expanding the sales scale and proportion of groove products, steadily increasing the production and sales proportion of FRD products, speeding up the development of IGBT and other products, IGBT products successfully completed technical development, through some customer verification, began to enter the stage of small batch shipment.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the weak demand in the global semiconductor industry and the decline in wafer shipments in 2023, Quzhou Base and Jiaxing Jinruihong are in the process of capacity climbing, we expect the company's 2023-2024 net profit forecast to be 390 million yuan (down to-70.8%, the same as below) / 620 million yuan (- 62.2%), and the new homing net profit forecast for 2025 is 840 million yuan. At present, the company has completed the three major business layouts of "wafer + power devices + RF chip foundry". We are optimistic about the advantages of the integration of the company's industrial chain, as well as with the expansion of wafer production, new energy industry chain, 5G and other downstream demand-driven silicon content increase and domestic substitution resonance, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand is not as expected, capacity expansion is not as expected, product research and development progress is not as expected, customer introduction progress is not as expected, upstream raw material prices rise, the risk of intensified market competition.
