商用车行业复苏，公司持续开发新客户和新产品，市占率提升，收入快于行业增长。2023年上半年重卡行业销量48.8 万辆，同比增长28.6%，中卡销量5.8 万辆，同比增长2.2%，轻卡销量93.5 万辆，同比增长10.4%。公司上半年收入20.38 亿元，同比增长29.69%，增幅快于行业。分板块看，曲轴收入12.8 亿元，同比增长37.2%，连杆收入4.8 亿元，同比增长39.1%，空气悬架1.3 亿元，同比增长28.6%，均实现较快增长。虽然公司曲轴和连杆市占率较高，但上半年公司各部门完成多项客户和新产品开发，实现了市占率提升，收入快速增长。其中主营业务完成1 家国内新客户开发，完成曲轴、连杆、铸锻件等35 款新产品开发；天润智控完成7 家新客户开发、15 款新产品开发；天润智能科技完成12 家新客户开发，完成12 个外销项目签订。Event description
The company released its mid-2023 report. In the first half of 2023, the operating income was 2.038 billion yuan, an increase of 29.69% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 212 million yuan, an increase of 61.91% over the same period last year.
Event comment
The commercial vehicle industry recovers, the company continues to develop new customers and products, the market share increases, and revenue grows faster than the industry. In the first half of 2023, the heavy truck industry sold 488000 vehicles, up 28.6 percent from the same period last year, 58000 medium trucks, up 2.2 percent, and 935000 light trucks, up 10.4 percent from the same period last year. The company's income in the first half of the year was 2.038 billion yuan, an increase of 29.69% over the same period last year, which was faster than that of the industry. From a plate-by-plate point of view, crankshaft revenue was 1.28 billion yuan, an increase of 37.2% over the same period last year, connecting rod income was 480 million yuan, an increase of 39.1% over the same period last year, and air suspension was 130 million yuan, an increase of 28.6% over the same period last year. Although the company has a high market share of crankshafts and connecting rods, various departments of the company completed a number of customer and new product development in the first half of the year, resulting in an increase in market share and rapid growth in revenue. Among them, the main business completed 1 domestic new customer development, completed 35 new product development of crankshaft, connecting rod, castings and forgings, etc.; Tianrun Intelligent Control completed 7 new customer development and 15 new product development; Tianrun Intelligent Technology completed 12 new customer development and completed 12 export projects.
Benefit from economies of scale and cost control capabilities, and the company's profitability has been greatly improved. The company's gross profit margin in the first half of 2023 was 25.2%, an increase in 2.4pct compared with the same period last year, of which 2023Q2 reached 26.3%, returning to the high level of the industry in 2019.
During the first half of 2023, the expense rate was basically unchanged, of which the management expense rate decreased 0.8pct compared with the same period last year, while the R & D and financial expense rate increased by 0.2 and 0.7pct compared with the same period last year. The increase in the financial expense rate is mainly due to: 1) the increase in interest expenses due to the increase in bank financing in the current period; and 2) higher exchange gains due to exchange rate changes in the same period last year. Taken together, the company's return net profit margin in the first half of 2023 was 10.4%, an increase in 2.1pct compared with the same period last year, and a significant improvement in profitability.
With the recovery of the plate economy, the company is expected to usher in rapid growth with the competitiveness of products and R & D, benefiting from the increase in industry penetration and the share of independent parts. Launch the employee stock ownership plan to stimulate the vitality of employees. 2022 affected by the prosperity of the plate, the company's main business and air suspension revenue declined, of which the air suspension income was 200 million yuan, down 3.4% from the same year last year, but in the same year, Tianrun Intelligence Control Company successfully developed 13 new customers, completed the new product development of 44 air suspensions and related parts, and completed the rubber suspension assembly line, the new control valve parts processing and assembly line, and the semi-trailer suspension assembly line. In the first half of 2023, Tianrun Intelligence Control completed 7 new customer development and 15 new product development. The company issued a draft employee stock ownership plan, with the total number of employees expected to be no more than 244 (excluding reserved shares), the maximum amount of funds to be raised is 58.434 million yuan, and the price of shares repurchased by the transferee is 2.73 yuan per share. The assessment year is from 2023 to 2024, and the assessment indicators are as follows: taking 2022 as the base, the growth rates of homed net profit in 2023 and 2024 are 100%, 200% (target value), 80% and 160% (trigger value), respectively.
Investment advice: the main business resumes rapid growth, intelligently drives high-end configuration, and the company opens the second main business. At present, the overall prosperity of the commercial vehicle industry has rebounded, and heavy truck sales have continued to grow at a high level. Relying on the rich experience of technical partners, Tianrun Industry has independent control strategy, complete experimental capabilities, key components and system supply capabilities, and its market share is expected to increase. The company's main business is relatively stable, empty open the second growth curve, the company is expected to 2023-2025 net profit 4.81,6.76, 813 million yuan, corresponding to PE 15.48X, 11.01X, 9.15X, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. under the influence of macro-economy, the demand for commercial vehicles has declined.
2. The growth rate of air suspension business is not as fast as expected.
