Events:
The company released a half-year report in 2023, 2023H1 achieved operating income of 233 million yuan (YoY+0.21%), net profit of 29 million yuan (YoY-8.04%), net profit of 20 million yuan (YoY-22.74%) deducted from non-parent net profit, net cash flow from operating activities of-21 million yuan (YoY+39.04%) and total assets of 1.482 billion yuan (YoY+13.76%).
2023Q2, the company realized operating income of 166 million yuan (YoY-7.17%), net profit of 25 million yuan (YoY-34.76%), and non-return net profit of 17 million yuan (YoY-47.81%).
Comments:
The investment in R & D has increased a lot, and the profit end is under short-term pressure. In the first half of 2023, the company's total R & D investment was 60.065 million yuan, an increase of 64.95% over the same period last year, accounting for 25.76% of income, an increase of 10.11% over the same period last year, mainly due to the promotion of the company's tetravalent influenza virus cleavage vaccine (MDCK cells) and recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine Ⅲ phase clinical trials, so expended R & D investment and capitalized R & D investment increased significantly over the previous period.
The clinical trial of recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine in phase Ⅲ was accelerated, and the research and development pipeline was promoted in an orderly manner. The company's recombinant staphylococcus aureus vaccine has entered phase Ⅲ clinical trials, and it is the only recombinant staphylococcus aureus vaccine to carry out clinical research in China, with a broad market space; AC-Hib combined vaccine has entered the production registration stage, which is expected to bring new profit growth points for the company after listing; in the first half of the year, the company's freeze-dried Haemophilus influenzae conjugate vaccine was approved in clinical trials; adsorptive tetanus vaccine was approved to increase "pre-filling" packaging. Layout of Acinetobacter baumannii recombinant subunit vaccine project to enrich the layout of nosocomial vaccine.
Profit forecast: we expect the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 to be 6.94,9.02 and 1.207 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.75%, 29.99% and 33.75% respectively, and net profit of 0.64,1.36% and 240 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 140.78%, 112.19% and 76.68% respectively. The stock price PE before the corresponding period is 102,48 and 27 times respectively, maintaining the "highly recommended" rating.
Risk tips: research and development progress is not as expected, product sales are not as expected, market policy adjustment risk, etc.