Main points of investment
Main points of announcement: according to the company's semi-annual report of 2023, H1 realized revenue of 28.845 billion yuan in 2023, + 24.47% year-on-year; net profit of 606 million yuan, + 177.88%; and net profit of 411 million yuan, + 463.48%. 2023Q2 achieved revenue of 13.872 billion yuan, compared with the same month-on-month ratio of + 28.58% qtel 7.36%, homing net profit of 308 million yuan, and + 272.94% end-to-end net profit of 3.47%. After deducting non-homed net profit of 238 million yuan, Q2 performance exceeded our expectations.
Q2 gross profit margin increased higher than that of the previous month, and the reduction of cost and efficiency continued to advance. 1) in terms of revenue, the total vehicle sales of 2023Q2 is 159700, compared with the same month-on-month comparison, the sales volume is + 30.14% torque 11.7%, and the apparent sales volume is 125500, and the same month-on-month comparison is + 30.95% torque 8.61%. The revenue and sales volume have the same trend as the same month-on-month trend. The year-on-year increase is mainly due to the overall recovery of the commercial vehicle industry, the month-on-month decline is mainly due to the Q2 off-season, and the industry sales volume as a whole has declined slightly. The average price of Q2 bike is about 110500 yuan, which is-2% and 1% compared with the previous month. The month-on-month increase is mainly due to the recovery of terminal sales discounts. 2) in the gross margin dimension, Q2 achieves 12.42%, which is + 0.08/+1.37pct respectively compared with the same month. The significant increase in the month-on-month ratio is mainly due to the company's continuous promotion of the supply chain and internal cost reduction and effective recovery of discounts. 3) in the expense rate dimension, Q2 company sales management research expense rates are 2.82%, 3%, 3.69%, respectively,-1.23/-0.36/+0.25pct, month-on-month, respectively. The decrease in sales expenses is mainly due to the decrease in after-sales service fees compared with the same period last year, and the increase in management expenses compared with the same period last year is mainly due to the increase in employee salary and asset depreciation in the current period. The increase in R & D expenses is mainly due to the increase in expended R & D projects in the current period. 4) in the investment income dimension, the investment income of the company's 2023Q2 is 54 million yuan,-71.59% compared with the previous month, mainly due to the loss of the joint venture Fukuda Daimler. Fukuda Daimler 2023Q2 sales are 17000 vehicles, compared with-21.46%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the leading industry in the light truck industry continues to make efforts, and the transformation of new energy is accelerated.
We maintain the forecast of the company's total revenue in 2023 and 2025 at 598.59, 726.35 / 87.266 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 14.27, 2152, 2.821 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 2092%, 51%, 31%, respectively, the corresponding EPS is 0.18, 0.27, 0.35 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 19.91, 13.20, 10.07 times. In view of the sound coverage of Foton's commercial vehicle business, stable profits and the continued strength of the long-term layout of the new energy sector, we believe that Foton should enjoy a higher valuation premium and maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the recovery of the commercial vehicle industry is not as expected; the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; competition intensifies.