Event
On August 17, 2023, the company announced that the revenue in the first half of 2023 was 233 million yuan, an increase of 0.21% over the same period last year. The net profit returned to the mother was 29 million yuan, down 8.04% from the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return was 20 million yuan, down 22.74% from the same period last year. The revenue in the second quarter of 2023 was 166 million yuan, down 7.17% from the same period last year; the net profit was 25 million yuan, down 34.76% from the same period last year; and the net profit was 17 million yuan, down 47.81% from the same period last year.
Comment
Revenue increased slightly compared with the same period last year, and increased investment in R & D reduced the company's net profit. (1) the operating income in the first half of 2023 was 233 million yuan, an increase of 0.21% over the same period last year. The company currently has three products on the market, namely: adsorbed tetanus vaccine, Hib conjugate vaccine and AC conjugate vaccine. (2) the net profit of returning home decreased by 8.04% compared with the same period last year, mainly because the R & D investment was 60.07 million yuan, an increase of 64.95% over the same period last year: the company added a tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine (MDCK cell) project, resulting in a cost-intensive R & D investment of 41.5693 million yuan, an increase of 31.76% over the same period in 2022. The phase 3 clinical trial of recombinant staphylococcus aureus vaccine was accelerated, with a capitalized R & D investment of 18.496 million yuan, an increase of 280.08% over the same period in 2022.
The market for core products is broad, and the national sales network accelerates the volume of products. (1) the adsorbed tetanus vaccine is mainly used for the prevention of non-neonatal tetanus, and the batch distribution of the company's products ranks first in the industry in the first half of 2023. The penetration rate is expected to further increase with the deepening of the promotion of active immunity against tetanus in the future. (2) AC-Hib combined vaccine can effectively reduce the number of vaccination, and has the advantages of good compliance and high performance-to-price ratio. There is no AC-Hib combined vaccine on the market, and the company's products have entered the production registration stage. It is expected to bring new profit growth points after listing. (3) in the phase 3 clinical trial of recombinant staphylococcus aureus vaccine developed in cooperation with Army military Medical University, the population is at high risk of Staphylococcus aureus infection, including perioperative patients, the elderly and children with low immunity. Clinical enrollment in many hospitals across the country is the only recombinant staphylococcus aureus vaccine in China to carry out clinical research. There is no similar product on the market worldwide. It is expected that the vaccine will have a broad market in the future. (4) the company has built a marketing network covering 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, laying a good foundation for the market development of future products.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
Considering that the AC-Hib vaccine is expected to be approved in 2023, the volume may be released in 2024 after the gradual introduction of the market, and the profit forecast is maintained. The annual sales revenue in 2023-24-25 is expected to be 652, 853, and 1.51 billion yuan, an increase of 19 percent, 31 percent, and 35 percent, compared with the same period last year. The net profit of the homing mother is 0.30, 0.59, and 130 million yuan, an increase of 11 percent, 101, and 119 percent. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of R & D and sales falling short of expectations, the risk of falling product prices, and the risk of industry policy changes.