The company is the leading enterprise of clean energy storage and transportation equipment, chemical tank equipment, liquid food engineering and other businesses have also come to the fore in the international market. In recent years, along the path of diversified innovation and development, the company has gradually entered the market of small and medium-sized liquefied gas carriers and clean fuel ships, laying out the whole industry chain of hydrogen energy supply. in the future, in the process of "double carbon", the driving force of the company's growth is clear. it is also expected to smooth the future fluctuation of the traditional business. Considering the steady growth of the company's natural gas industry chain business, the continuous expansion of clean energy business boundaries and the high revenue growth expectation of the hydrogen sector, the company was given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Based on traditional business, diversified and innovative development. Based on the manufacturing and operation of natural gas and other energy equipment, the company gradually extends the industrial chain and product application scenes. at present, it has developed into a diversified development pattern of clean energy equipment manufacturing, chemical environment and other tank equipment, liquid food equipment manufacturing and engineering.
In recent years, the company's forward-looking layout, continue to expand the hydrogen industry chain products, and actively develop methanol and liquid ammonia and other green energy storage and transportation equipment. Under the goal of "double carbon", the company's business continues to innovate and evolve, strengthening the industry's leading edge.
The clean energy business is being innovated, and the business boundary is constantly expanding. The company's layout in the clean energy sector spans "water and land". "onshore" business, the company lays out key equipment manufacturing and engineering service business around the natural gas industry chain, and can provide one-stop system solutions. The company's LNG cylinder business is expected to grow rapidly with the industry boom in 2023-2025, and natural gas storage tank equipment is expected to continue to expand. In the "water" business, the company is the market leader in the segment of small and medium-sized LPG tankers. The product chain covers full-pressure and semi-cooled semi-pressure series carriers and LNG refueling vessels that can carry many kinds of LPG. With the increase of global LNG shipping demand and shipbuilding orders in the past two years, related ship and equipment income is expected to achieve long-term growth. At the same time, the company continues to expand the "water" business boundaries, complying with the green trend of global shipping, and began to enter the clean fuel container ship market in 2023. The domestic inland river ship "oil to steam" project, which has actively participated in the past three years, has also become a new source of business growth. We expect the company's clean energy business (excluding hydrogen) to grow by 10%, 7%, 7% and 7% respectively in 2023-2025.
Chemical can manufacturing world leader, liquid food engineering equipment world leader. The company's chemical environment division business corresponds to the manufacture of chemical cans, and the company's market share in 2021 is 55% (disclosed in the prospectus of CIMC).
The chemical can industry is characterized by specialization and high barriers, with an average annual compound growth rate of 6.95% in the past five years. As a global leader, the company can enjoy the steady growth of the industry, and its business income is expected to be close to 7 billion yuan in 2025. In the liquid food engineering sector, the company is one of the few suppliers in the world with turnkey capacity. Most of the revenue from this business currently comes from the beer industry, and it has been actively expanding orders in the pharmaceutical engineering field in the past two years. It is expected that the company's two major sectors of revenue will maintain steady growth in the future.
The hydrogen business is expected to create the company's second growth curve. With its advantages in the field of natural gas storage and transportation equipment, the company has laid out the hydrogen energy industry chain and has been ploughing it for many years. The company's hydrogen energy business takes storage and transportation as the core, and has formed the layout of the whole industry chain of "system, storage, transportation and addition". At present, the main products are hydrogen storage bottles at hydrogen filling stations, hydrogen tube bundles and hydrogen storage tanks. In the future, vehicle-mounted IV hydrogen storage bottles and electrolytic cell equipment are expected to become potential products of the company. With the gradual spread of the domestic hydrogen energy application scenario and the promotion of the green hydrogen project, we expect the company's hydrogen energy product sales revenue to maintain a high growth trend in the next three years. It is estimated that the hydrogen energy sector revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 7.29 pound 14.16 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 66% 94% / 85% compared with the same period last year, and the hydrogen energy sector is expected to be built into the company's second growth curve.
Risk factors: the demand for traditional natural gas equipment fluctuates; the promotion of hydrogen-related products is not as expected; the risk of rising raw material costs; the risk of technology iteration; the risk of exchange gains and losses; the risk of intensified market competition; the lower-than-expected risk of demand in the chemical and liquid food industries.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: considering the steady growth of the company's natural gas industry chain business, the continuous development of new markets in the clean energy business and the potential growth of the hydrogen business, we give the company a forecast of HK $0.71 EPS for 2023-25, corresponding to a current price of HK $7.53 (at the exchange rate of HK $0.92 on July 25), corresponding to PE10.6/9.1/7.1. We refer to the A-share comparable company to value the company by using the two methods of Pamp B valuation and DCF, and give the company a target price of HK $11. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.