Core ideas:

Event: the company announced that 2023H1 reported that the operating income in the first half of 2023 was 1.981 billion yuan, an increase of 57.53% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 298 million yuan, an increase of 30.04% over the same period last year.

Comments: the demand for aerospace forgings increases steadily, and the electric power plate achieves a high growth rate. On the revenue side, in terms of business, the company's operating income in aerospace, petrochemical, electric power and other forgings in the first half of the year was 6.79,4.90,4.79 and 109 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.03%, 69.30%, 297.04% and-13.07%, respectively. According to the company's semi-annual report, in terms of aerospace business, the company's die forging business has also completed the development of new customers and part of the trial production, and its cooperation with Luo Luo and GE has been continuously deepened, and some of the trial products have received batch production orders; in terms of energy business, the wind power business has grown rapidly in the first half of the year. Quarter by quarter, 23Q2 achieved revenue and return net profit of 10.38 yuan and 155 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year growth rate of 60.55% and 27.09%, and a month-on-month 23Q1 growth rate of 9.98% and 7.95%.

On the profit side, the company's 23H1 homing net profit increased by 30.04% compared with the same period last year, of which the gross profit margin remained stable, with 23H1 and 22H1 gross profit margins of 26.72% and 26.98%, respectively; and the expense rate remained stable during the period, with the expense rate of 7.34% during the 23H1 period, which decreased 0.45pct from 7.79% in the same period last year.

However, the growth rate of net profit is slower than that of revenue, which is mainly due to the increase of asset impairment loss and credit impairment loss, as well as the decrease of other income. Among them, the asset impairment loss increased by 591.39% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the age of inventory; the credit impairment loss increased by 155.36% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in accounts receivable; and other income was 40 million yuan in the same period last year and 7 million yuan in the current period. it is due to the reduction of VAT-exempt income and government subsidies for products. On the balance sheet side, the book value of the company's inventory and contract liabilities at the end of the current period is 9.53 yuan and 39 million yuan respectively. Among them, contract liabilities increased by 44% year-on-year and 65% over the beginning of this year, mainly due to the increase in advance income caused by business growth.

Profit forecast and investment advice: it is estimated that the EPS for 23-25 years will be 5.16,6.57,8.11 yuan per share.

Maintain the fair value of 129.11 yuan / share unchanged, maintain the "overweight" rating.

Risk tips: industry policy adjustment; low expectation of downstream equipment demand; fluctuation of raw material prices, etc.