On August 18, 2023, Ximai Food released its half-yearly report for 2023.
Main points of investment
The performance exceeds expectations and the optimization of rates releases profits.
2023H1's revenue was 701 million yuan (up 11%), and its net profit was 65 million yuan (41%). Of this total, 2023Q2's revenue was 314 million yuan (up 11%), and its net profit was 26 million yuan (45%), which exceeded expectations. 2023H1 gross profit margin is 42.79% (same as minus 0.4pct), of which 2023Q2 is 43.24% (same as 2pct); 2023H1 net profit is 9.32% (same as 2pct), of which 2023Q2 is 8.3% (same as 2pct). The 2023H1 sales expense rate is 27.18% (same as minus 4pct), of which 2023Q2 is 28.51% (same as minus 4pct); the rate of management expense is 6.08% (same as minus 0.4pct), of which 2023Q2 is 7.44% (same as minus 0.2pct); and the proportion of business tax and surcharge is 0.83% (same as minus 0.1pct), of which 2023Q2 is 0.95% (same as minus 0.1pct). The net cash flow of 2023H1 operating activities is 28 million yuan (same as 40%), of which 2023Q2 is-13 million yuan.
The dominant position of oat is prominent, and the intensive farming in all channels is growing at a high speed.
From a product-by-product point of view, the revenue of 2023H1 pure oatmeal / composite oatmeal / other products was RMB 3.06 million, with an increase of 0.3%, 17% and 44%, respectively. From a regional point of view, the revenue of 2023H1 Southern region and Northern region is RMB 368 million, an increase of 11% and 10% respectively. The company continues to consolidate and enhance the dominant position of hot food oats, actively carries out product upgrading and channel construction, expands regional competitive advantage through category innovation, and explores a new retail model that promotes the integration of online and offline; insists on deep ploughing of offline channels, further sinks the channels of advantageous areas, and continuously develops new retail channels such as snack stores, community group buying, community convenience, fresh supermarkets, etc.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that in 2023-2025, the EPS will be 0.60, 0.71, and 0.83 yuan, and the current share price, corresponding to PE, will be times that of 25-21-18, maintaining the "buy" investment rating.
Risk hint
Macroeconomic downside risks, new product promotion is not as expected, cold food promotion is not as expected, merchant excess passenger flow is reduced, and so on.