On August 17, 2023, Panda Dairy released its half-yearly report for 2023.
Main points of investment
The performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the cost improved significantly.
2023H1's revenue was 448 million yuan (up 18%), and its net profit was 47 million yuan (107%). Of this total, 2023Q2's revenue was 232 million yuan (up 26%), and its net profit was 28 million yuan (up 154%). 2023H1 gross profit margin is 23.44% (same increase 3pct), of which 2023Q2 is 25.83% (same increase 5pct); 2023H1 net profit margin is 10.44% (same increase 4pct), of which 2023Q2 is 12.25% (same increase 6pct). The rate of 2023H1 sales expenses is 5.01% (same as minus 2pct), of which 2023Q2 is 5.29% (same as minus 2pct); the rate of administrative expenses is 5.31% (same as minus 0.1pct), of which 2023Q2 is 5.86% (same as minus 0.5pct). Business tax and surcharge accounted for 0.44% (same increase 0.1pct), of which 2023Q2 was 0.42% (same increase 0.1pct). The net cash flow of 2023H1 operating activities was 24 million yuan (same as an increase of 148%), of which 2023Q2 was 5 million yuan (same as a decrease of 32%).
New products + channel two-wheel drive, new cheese products are expected to be sold.
In terms of products, the revenue of 2023H1 concentrated dairy products (including coconut products) / dairy trade / other products was 3.28 million yuan, respectively, with an increase of 21%, 10%, 38%. From a sub-channel point of view, in the sales of 2023H1 concentrated dairy products, direct sales / distribution revenue was 0.43 billion yuan, an increase of 103% and 12% respectively. From a regional point of view, the revenue of 2023H1 in East China / South China / North China / other regions is RMB 2.43, 0.69, 0.36, 100 million respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 21%, + 21%, 3%, 9%, 39%. According to the split of volume and price, the sales volume of 2023H1 concentrated dairy products is 20700 tons (up 14%), and the corresponding price is 159,000 yuan per ton (same as a decrease of 1%). As of 2023H1, there were a total of 353 dealers, a net increase of 41. The company actively develops and launches new cheese products, the new cheese products of Little Panda companion series and nothing cheese snacks series are well received in the market, and develop new dealers to promote new products, both online and offline. Make use of new media channels to promote the rapid development of the brand.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic that the company will consolidate the basic plate of condensed milk and continue to create a growth pole, and coconut products are expected to continue to sell. It is estimated that the EPS for 2023-2025 will be 1.11 yuan for 0.73 PE 0.91 pounds, and the current share price will be times higher than that of 37-30-24, maintaining the "buy" investment rating.
Risk hint
Downside risk of macro economy, rising risk of raw materials, lower-than-expected expansion outside the province, etc.