Tong Guowei in the Yongzheng Dynasty once said, roughly speaking, the opportunity that everyone can see is not an opportunity, and the risk that everyone can see is not risk. It seems that this sentence can be applied to capital markets, whether it is the stock market or the bond market. While you are still panicking, the veterans may already be quietly laying out.
The point I want to make today is about June 20, 2013, when a stress test suddenly put financial pressure on the market. The overnight interest rate of that day is about 30%, and the seven-day interest rate is about 20%, which can be said to have made a history.
Against this background, the stock market has also plummeted. The stock index fell from 2132 on June 20 to a low of 1849.65 on June 25. Looking back, the smashing disk created a perfect "golden pit". Since then, the market began the journey of five thousand points. It's just that capital markets have been nervous every June since 2013.
However, as Tong Guowei said, the risk that everyone can think of is not called risk. If such a risk leads to panic, it may be an opportunity.The probability of troubling the market six years ago may not be high.
After the A-share market closed on June 14, the central bank announced that it would increase the rediscount and standing lending facilities by 300 billion yuan, strengthen liquidity support for small and medium-sized banks, and maintain adequate liquidity for small and medium-sized banks. Small and medium-sized banks may use qualified bonds, interbank certificates of deposit and bills as collateral to apply to the people's Bank of China for liquidity support.
A veteran "debt maker" told a Chinese reporter at a brokerage that most of the time, the problems were caused by himself. After the emergence of a certain risk point, the counterparties will be separated from each other, which is understandable in terms of interests. But in terms of the system as a whole, this fragmentation can be contagious and cause panic. However, in hindsight many times, the risk will eventually disappear and panic will develop into an opportunity. It is true that there were many variables that disturbed liquidity in June, but after so many years, the market should be fully expected and relatively well prepared, and the market may even have better-than-expected liquidity.
It is worth noting that at a time when the mood in the A-share market is fluctuating violently, smart funds have been entering the market, including both northward channel funds and financing funds. In January and February of this year, it was these two types of funds that played the role of prophets of "Chunjiang water-warm ducks".
In addition, the global equity funds it monitors attracted net inflows of $3.2 billion in the week to June 12, the second since mid-March, according to the latest weekly data released by EPFR, a money flow monitoring and research firm. Among them, Chinese, US and Japanese equity funds all attracted net inflows.
Friday's after-hours profit should not be ignored.
Some market participants joked that the shortage of funds has several major characteristics: double-digit interest rates on funds, large defaults in buybacks, flow marks of national debt and "traders write poems".
Judging from the current situation, the possibility of several major features is relatively low.
After the A-share market closed on June 14, the central bank announced that it would increase the rediscount limit by 200 billion yuan and the standing loan facility line by 100 billion yuan, strengthen liquidity support for small and medium-sized banks, and keep them fully liquid. Small and medium-sized banks may use qualified bonds, interbank certificates of deposit and bills as collateral to apply to the people's Bank of China for liquidity support.
At the same time, the capital market interest rate is mainly below. On the 14th, the Shibor short-end president went up, overnight Shibor was 1.7230%, down 20.1bp; 7-day Shibor was 2.5650%, down 1.8bp; 3-month Shibor was 2.9470%, up 0.3bp.
Recently, the Ministry of Supervision has repeatedly said that at present, the liquidity of small and medium-sized banks is relatively sufficient, and the liquidity indicators as a whole are at a normal level.From the analysis of the transaction situation in the money market, the financing transaction scale and proportion of small and medium-sized banks are stable, there is no major change, the financing interest rate is the same as the previous period, and the financing conditions are relatively loose.
From the point of view of the issue of the same industry, it is also gradually recovering. FromChina International Capital CorporationData show that in the past week, AAA interbank certificate of deposit issuance has returned to normal, while AA+ and downgraded certificate of deposit issuance has also been stable and gradually recovering, indicating that the most tight period of liquidity may be over.
Liquidity itself was abundant in early June, and the central bank's resumption of reverse repurchase operations since June 3 is undoubtedly sending a clear positive signal to the market. The weighted average repurchase rate (DR001) of bank overnight pledge has recently fallen below 2 per cent, the first time it has fallen below 2 per cent since May 13.
Tianfeng SecuritiesHe said that the current macro background is similar to that of 1998-2002. Although interest rates may have twists and turns due to the impact of various events, the twists and turns are limited, and the central bank will intervene, so we can be optimistic about the direction of interest rates.
Smart money has a new trend.
Since May, the A-share market has been mainly affected by three major variables: first, inflation expectations, second, liquidity disturbances, and third, external market fluctuations.
Judging from the current situation, the first two variables are gradually turning, and they are controllable variables. From the perspective of the path of external market fluctuations affecting A shares, the recent net inflow of northward capital is obvious, which seems to indicate that this impact is also weakening.
Judging from the data, first, the increase in pork prices has come down, followed by the sharp fall in international oil prices, and inflation shows signs of peaking.
RecentlyHaitong SecuritiesJiang Chao released a research report that pig prices have fallen since May, while the prices of industrial products such as oil and coal prices have fallen sharply, so inflation has shown signs of peaking at a high level. They expect PPI to be the year's high in April, while CPI may peak in May, while inflation is expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Looking ahead, due to the rising risk of a global economic slowdown caused by trade frictions, the United States may lead the world into a new cycle of interest rate cuts. While the domestic economy bottomed out, inflation may peak and fall, and there is still room for monetary policy to ease.
The global equity funds it monitors attracted net inflows of $3.2 billion in the week to June 12, the second since mid-March, according to the latest weekly data released by EPFR, a money flow monitoring and research firm. Among them, Chinese, US and Japanese equity funds all attracted net inflows. In addition, global bond funds attracted net inflows of $16.7 billion, while global currency funds attracted net inflows of $23.6 billion.
Judging from the capital data of A shares this week, first of all, the two financial funds reversed the downward trend. As of June 13, the data showed that the balance of the two financial institutions this week increased by nearly 6 billion yuan. Secondly, funds went northward, with a net purchase of 15.662 billion yuan this week. Although there was a net outflow on Friday, there was a sudden increase in northbound funds at the end of Friday.
These two funds, which used to be the "engines" of the A-share bull market, both stalled in May, but have been collectively long since this week.Analysts believe that as long as the external market does not fluctuate too much, the A-share market has very limited room to fall. Judging from the current situation, stimulated by the expectation of interest rate cuts, the probability of a sharp fall in the peripheral market is not too high.
Citic Securities Research News pointed out that the turnaround in external liquidity and internal policies has been clear, domestic monetary policy is still loosening, and local risks in the financial market are manageable and will not spread. The upward inflection point of the market will be gradually established, and it is suggested that active allocation should be made to pay close attention to three main lines: continue to take large consumption and big finance as the bottom position, paying special attention to the leading varieties preferred by foreign capital; catalyzed by counter-cyclical policies, the prosperity of the infrastructure sector will pick up; pay attention to the A-share growth stock leader under the mapping of Kechuang board.