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汽车消费政策跟踪:禁止限购 汽车销量有望回暖

东海证券 ·  Jun 14, 2019 12:06

The “Implementation Plan” was introduced, and the automobile market is expected to pick up

The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Products and Smooth Resource Recycling (2019-2020)” (Development and Reform Industry (2019) No. 967), which focuses on the fields of automobiles, home appliances and consumer electronics, further consolidates the momentum of industrial upgrading, enhances market consumption vitality, enhances consumption support capacity, unblocks resource recycling, promotes the formation of a strong domestic market, and achieves high-quality industrial development. The “Implementation Plan” requires: 1) Continued industrial upgrading to put forward opinions on increasing reliability and reducing costs for new energy vehicles; at the same time, steadily promoting and continuously improving the innovation and development of smart cars and environmentally friendly vehicles. 2) Enhance market consumption vitality and stimulate passenger car consumption, especially consumption of new energy vehicles. At the same time, research and design the replacement of old vehicles, and promote the upgrading of rural vehicle consumption. 3) Improve the ability to support automobile consumption, start from the level of activating the used car market and demand for auto finance products, and further strengthen supporting infrastructure. 4) Strictly implement the rules for the elimination, dismantling and recycling of old products, thereby stimulating the recycling of resources.

The development of electrification and intelligence of automobiles is a top priority

China is highly dependent on imported petroleum, and the development of new energy vehicles is beneficial to China's future development. There are the following imminent problems in the development of new energy vehicles that need to be solved. 1) The cost is too high; as the exit time of the NEV subsidy policy continues to approach, the current high cost of new energy vehicles is getting more and more attention from consumers. 2) There is still room for improvement in quality. Currently, consumers' biggest concerns about new energy vehicles are still that their charging time is too long and the range is too short, and there are certain safety issues under certain circumstances.

It will take time for the policy to take effect. Beijing is expected to release 400,000 NEV demand

Purchase restrictions have been removed in various regions, and new energy vehicles are expected to become a growth point for the industry. After sorting through local policies that have implemented travel restrictions and purchase restrictions, we have found that currently only Beijing has implemented purchase restriction policies for new energy vehicles in the country, and the “Implementation Plan” is the guiding opinion, so the market will still have to wait some time for the exact introduction of supporting policies in various regions before being stimulated. Beijing currently has 443,636 new energy license plates in line, which will help increase demand after implementation.

Investment advice

Therefore, we recommend focusing on leading NEV companies. The “Implementation Plan” also requires focusing on the development of advanced transmissions, high-efficiency internal combustion engines, exhaust gas treatment technology, and vehicle weight reduction, so it is recommended that attention be paidPrecision forging technology(domestic transmission gear faucet),Baolong Technology(Sensors and new lightweight stars),Weifu Hi-Tech(Domestic engine leader).

Risk warning

Macroeconomic growth, automobile sales not meeting expectations, progress in electrification and intelligence falling short of expectations, etc. __

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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