Summary of the report:
Specializing in optical fiber devices and chip integration, optical communication devices + fiber laser + lithium niobate modulator three core product lines. Since its establishment, Optical Library Technology has continuously expanded its product line and service capacity through epitaxial mergers and acquisitions. At present, the products focus on three major business areas: optical fiber exciter, optical communication device, lithium niobate modulator and photon integration. In the field of optical fiber laser devices, the company has accumulated rich R & D experience and a large number of high-quality well-known customers with high brand awareness in the industry. The market share of fiber Bragg grating products is leading in China, and the market share of isolator products is leading in the industry. The self-developed 10kW laser beam combiner, 3kW fiber grating, 500W isolator, 10kW laser output head and other products have reached the global advanced level. The field of optical communication devices maintains a relatively leading position in the field of polarization-maintaining passive devices. In the field of lithium niobate modulator, it is one of the three leading companies in the industrialization and scale of ultra-high speed modulator chips and modules. In addition, the company attaches great importance to R & D investment, and the R & D expenditure rate is at a high level in the industry, supporting the leading advantages in various business, tamping competition barriers and ensuring the company's long-term and stable development.
Driven by the large AI model, the demand for computing power breaks out, and the prosperity of upstream optical module optical devices continues to improve.
Driven by ChatGPT and other AI models, the demand for computing power will surge, and data traffic will continue to accelerate, while Internet companies such as OpenAI, Alphabet Inc-CL C, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.Com Inc, Facebook Inc, BABA, Tencent, Baidu, Inc. and other Internet companies will maintain their demand for computing power and data centers. 800G high-speed optical modules will usher in the best part of the development driven by AI. In 2018, the company acquired the ability to provide joint devices, fiber arrays and polarization maintaining fiber arrays for transceiver, AOC (active optical cable), silicon photon and low light level engine applications through the acquisition of Jiahua Weijie, which has been cut into the data center industry chain; with the outbreak of downstream demand driven by AI, the company's optical communication device business is expected to grow rapidly.
The thin film lithium niobate modulator is the world leader and has a broad prospect in the field of coherence. In 2019, the company became one of the leading international manufacturers of high-speed lithium niobate modulators through the acquisition of Lumentum and its wide range of lithium niobate high-speed modulator line-related assets. Lithium niobate modulator is one of the core components in the field of coherent optical communication, and thin film lithium niobate modulator is expected to become the mainstream route with the advantages of large bandwidth, low power consumption and small size. With the continuous sinking of high-speed coherent optical transmission technology to the region / data center and other fields, the demand for modulators will continue to grow, and the estimated market space is about 60-9 billion yuan.
Profit forecast: as a domestic scarce supplier of lithium niobate chips and devices, the company fully benefits from the broad prospects and capacity release of thin film lithium niobate. The company is expected to benefit from the rapid expansion of downstream market demand such as Datong in the field of optical communication devices, maintain a competitive advantage in the field of fiber lasers and achieve rapid growth in performance. It is estimated that from 2023 to 2025, the company's operating income will be 830 pounds RMB 1.1088 billion yuan respectively, the net profit of returning to the mother will be 1.33 billion yuan RMB 186pm 257 million yuan, and the EPS will be 0.54 pounds per share respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: industry demand is lower than expected, technology upgrading, international operation risk.