Data performance: demand fluctuations, ship maintenance and fee increases, resulting in a slight decline in Q2 performance

The company's 23H1 realized revenue of 579 million yuan (year-on-year + 47.5%) and deducted non-return net profit of 87 million yuan (year-on-year-2.8%). Of this total, Q2 has revenue of 287 million yuan (year-on-year + 35.3%, month-on-month-1.9%) and non-return net profit of 41 million yuan (year-on-year-21.4%, month-on-month-10.1%). We judge that the main reasons for the month-on-month decline in Q2 performance are as follows: in terms of ① demand, the refinery maintenance time in the first half of the year has moved forward compared with previous years, and the downstream prosperity index continues to be too cold, resulting in a decline in the company's capacity utilization; on the supply side of ②, in view of the downward demand, the company Q2 arranged centralized ship maintenance, resulting in an increase in maintenance costs and a slowdown in the pace of capacity climbing. In terms of ③ fees, the company's 23Q2 financial rate rose to 5.61% (year-on-year + 2.7pp, month-on-month + 0.1pp), and management rate rose to 6.9% (year-on-year + 1.3pp, month-on-month-0.1pp).

Comments: the demand side has improved the signal, looking forward to resonating with capacity climbing and debt structure improvement. First of all, the demand side has a marginal improvement signal. The August freight rate of ① has stabilized and rebounded; the operating rates of key categories such as ② PX, pure benzene and styrene have continued to pick up; and factory inventories of key categories of ③ have shown a marginal trend of degeneration. The company's performance is expected to be repaired quickly as demand picks up.

Second, the company's production capacity and market share are still expected to continue to increase. As of 23H1, the company's domestic chemical shipping capacity accounts for 11.7%. Compared with the end of 22 + 0.9pp. Taking into account the growth of industry capacity and the pace of the company's expansion, the company's domestic chemical carrier market share is still expected to maintain rapid growth.

Finally, the company's debt structure is expected to improve. In terms of financial expenses, the company has announced a convertible bond financing plan of no more than 740 million, laying the foundation for further tuning the debt structure and reducing the financial expense rate.

Investment suggestion: under the fluctuation of prosperity and performance, the valuation of the company is relatively low. It is estimated that the revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.23 billion yuan, 1.59 billion yuan and 1.89 billion yuan respectively (the previous forecast is 1.23 billion yuan, 1.59 billion yuan and 1.89 billion yuan). The net profit of returning to the mother is 200 million yuan, 320 million yuan and 4.2 billion yuan respectively (the previous forecast value is 210 million yuan, 330 million yuan, 4.2 billion yuan). At present, the market capitalization corresponds to PE of 16.7x, 10.3x and 7.8x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint

Policy changes, demand growth is less than expected, capacity expansion is less than expected, M & A risks, chemical transport safety risks, oil prices fluctuate sharply, labor costs rise sharply.