Main points of investment:
Traditional business PCB drilling needle production capacity superimposed gross profit increase is expected to achieve steady growth in production and sales. In 2021, the company has a production capacity of 707 million PCB drilling needles, with sales of 602 million. 480 million PCB micro-drill needle projects in 2022H1 account for 13% of PCB sales, which will increase the company's production capacity by 67.86%. The increase in the proportion of micro-drill needle products is expected to help PCB drill needle gross profit margin increase. In terms of market share, the global market share will be about 19% in 2020, ranking first. In the future, with the development of overseas markets and the increase of production capacity, the market share is expected to increase. Production capacity superimposed gross profit increases, traditional business is expected to achieve steady growth.
New business 1: functional membrane products are expected to gradually expand
The company's functional film products include hardening film, AG explosion-proof film, mobile phone anti-peep film, vehicle light control film, among which the vehicle light control film solves the problem that the vehicle display screen will display images on the front windshield, thus disturbing the driver's line of sight. At present, the film products are mainly hardened films used in the surface protection of furniture and household appliances, and it is expected that the vehicle light control film will be gradually released this year.
New business 2: the production capacity of CNC tools is accelerating, and the channel is constantly broadening. the company's CNC tools are mainly rod-shaped tools, with sales of 1.4099 million CNC tools in 2021. After 1.8 million CNC tools in the IPO project are put into production, the production capacity will accelerate; with the continuous expansion of sales channels, the business revenue is expected to increase.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 13.93 yuan 18.12 / 2.327 billion yuan, with a corresponding growth rate of 14.33%, 30.05%, 28.43%, 2.56 pm, 3.47 / 467 million yuan, 14.90%, 35.61%, 34.37%, 1.14 yuan per share and 27.93%, respectively. The value per share of the company measured by the absolute valuation method is 24.42 yuan, and the average PE of the comparable company in 2023 is 15.87 times. In view of the continuous improvement of the company's high-end drill needle products and the prospect of domestic replacement and volume of the car optical control film, we give the company 40 times PE in 2023 with a target price of 24.98 yuan and a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: PCB industry development is not as expected, the company's capacity release is not expected, raw material price fluctuations and supply risks, PCB mechanical drilling is replaced by laser drilling.