The company released its annual report for the first half of 2023, with operating income of 1.88 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 18.49% over the same period last year, a net profit of 273 million yuan, a decrease of 26.23%, and a non-return net profit of 274 million yuan, a decrease of 26.27% over the same period last year. Of this total, the operating income in the second quarter was 882 million yuan, down 9.87% from the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 115 million yuan, down 56.84% from the same period last year. The non-return net profit was 117 million yuan, down 56.63% from the same period last year.
The phosphorus chemical industry is in the doldrums, dragging down the second quarter results. In the second quarter, the prosperity of calcium dihydrogen phosphate and monoammonium phosphate declined obviously, and the price of phosphate rock was slightly weaker than the previous quarter, which was a certain drag on the company's second quarter performance.
According to Baichuan, the average tax price of calcium dihydrogen phosphate, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate wet southwest and Hubei 30% phosphate ore ship plate in the second quarter was 3528 (YoY- 39.12% YoY- QoQ-6.75%), 5381 (YoY-29.13%,QoQ-16.38%) and 1024 (YoY+26.77%,QoQ-0.18%) yuan per ton, respectively.
With the continuous progress of the project, the company has a good growth. Since 2022, the company has successively completed and put into operation a series of projects, successfully improving the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials, improving the layout of the supply chain, and helping the company to distribute in the field of new energy. These include "Fuquan City New mineralization Integrated phosphorus Resources intensive and Deep processing Project-1.5 million t / a comprehensive utilization of low and medium grade phosphate ore mineral processing equipment and supporting facilities" project, "300,000 t / a pyrite sulfuric acid production project", "200,000 t / a semi-water-dihydrate wet process phosphoric acid and intensive processing project" front-end wet process phosphoric acid production line and "100000 t / a ferric phosphate project". In addition, the company plans to build projects such as 120,000 tons / year of food-grade phosphoric acid, 100,000 tons / year of food-grade purified phosphoric acid, and 2.5 million tons / year of Jigongling Phosphate Mine, which will further enhance the company's self-sufficiency in raw materials. Under the background of limited phosphate rock supply expansion, a stable supply of raw materials will enhance the company's market competitiveness.
Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "overweight" ratings. The company is the leader of phosphorus chemical subdivision, and the phosphate ore reserve is rich. With the growth of the project, it is expected that the company will achieve operating income of 37.36,49.99,6.806 billion yuan and return net profit of 6.74,8.57,1.219 billion yuan in 23-25 years, corresponding to 15X/12X/8X for PE, maintaining the "holding increase" rating.
Risk hint: the price of the product is downward, and the project is not as expected.