Main points of investment
Micro and special motor leader, 2012-2022 homing net profit CAGR about 16%
The company is a well-known global manufacturer in the field of motion control, specializing in the manufacture of key components of motion control, intelligent LED lighting control and industrial equipment management. The company cooperates with more than 30 international companies around the world, and its products are widely used in industrial automation, communications, security, communications, automotive industry, consumption and other downstream fields. From 2012 to 2022, the company's revenue and return net profit CAGR are about 13% and 16% respectively.
The market space of micro and special motors is large, and the global market is expected to reach 56.1 billion US dollars in 2030.
Market size: the global market size of micro and special motors reached US $35.85 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach US $56.1 billion by 2030. CAGR is about 6%. The market size of micro and special motors in China is expected to grow from 102.4 billion yuan in 2018 to 161 billion yuan in 2023, with CAGR about 9.5%.
Industry drivers: 1) overseas development: the demand for high-end micro and special motor products such as energy saving and intelligence in overseas markets will continue to increase; 2) New areas will be expanded: the rise of intelligent medical devices, new energy vehicles, wearable devices, robots, drones, smart homes and other fields to promote the development of the industry.
Competition pattern: still dominated by Japanese enterprises. In terms of subdividing HB stepper motors, the market is highly concentrated. The top five manufacturers have a global market share of more than 80%, of which Japanese companies occupy four seats. In 2015, Japanese companies accounted for more than 65% of the global HB stepper motor market share of about 10%.
Extension to improve the product matrix, overseas expansion and rapid development
Extension to broaden the product line: through four important acquisitions to broaden the product matrix, the company's products cover a variety of motors, drivers, encoders and integrated modules.
Endogenesis: the company has strong R & D strength and actively arranges new fields such as factory automation, medical devices and biochemical analysis, mobile service robots, solar photovoltaic, new energy & intelligent cars, etc.
Overseas expansion: the company has dealers all over the world. From 2012 to 2022, the company's overseas revenue CAGR is about 16%, accounting for 48% of the total revenue from 36%.
With the wind of humanoid robot, hollow cup motor is expected to usher in new growth space.
Taking Tesla, Inc. humanoid robot as an example, the structure of its hand can be divided into hollow cup motor + screw + sensor. In the future, the large-scale application of humanoid robot is expected to reshape the demand space of the industry and bring new incremental market. We estimate that the 2030 hollow cup motor has an incremental market space of about 10.4 billion yuan in the field of humanoid robots.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 380 million yuan, 600 million yuan and 840 million yuan respectively, an increase of 55%, 55% and 41% respectively over the same period last year, corresponding to about 67, 43 and 31 times of PE respectively. As a domestic leader in micro-special motor, humanoid robot is expected to open up new market space. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
1) the technological breakthrough is not as expected; 2) the market demand is not as expected; 3) the progress of humanoid robot is not as expected.