Events:
The company released the first half of 2023 performance report, the first half of the company realized operating income of 257 million yuan (+ 8.39%); realized return net profit of 28 million yuan (+ 30.95%); realized deduction of non-net profit of 20 million yuan (+ 95.00%); 2023Q2 realized operating income of 146 million yuan (+ 22.14%); realized return net profit of 24 million yuan (+ 275.54%).
The number of motor vehicles continues to grow, and the company's business volume gradually recovers. Previously, under the influence of the lax policy of motor vehicle testing in 2020 and 2022, the frequency and number of motor vehicle testing in China have dropped both. In the first half of 2023, the number of motor vehicles and the age of vehicles in China continued to increase, and the frequency and measurement of vehicle testing were gradually restored. By the end of June 2023, the number of motor vehicles in the country had reached 426 million (+ 4.69%), and the two major businesses of the company's testing system and operational services were gradually restored.
Profitability declined slightly, followed by vehicle inspection growth is expected to recover. 2023H1, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin is 47.17% (- 2.3pct), mainly because the gross profit margin of motor vehicle testing services has dropped sharply; from a business point of view, the gross profit margin of motor vehicle testing system is 53.8% (+ 5.45pct), mainly due to the relatively high sales of software systems of 2023H1 Company. The gross profit margin of motor vehicle testing services was 27.27% (- 14.88pct), which decreased significantly, mainly due to the relaxation of vehicle inspection policy in October 2022, the decline in vehicle inspection frequency and quantity, the intensification of market competition and the decline in motor vehicle testing prices; the gross profit margin of testing and operating value-added services was 73.42% (+ 1.68pct).
Continue to optimize the cost management and control capacity, 2023H1 increased R & D investment, R & D costs have increased.
2023H1, the company expense rate is 37.04% (- 2.30pct); the sales rate, management rate and financial rate are 9.23% / 21.94% /-2.85% respectively, year-on-year-1.55pct/-1.49 pct/-2.47 pct, of which the financial expense rate decreases greatly, mainly due to the increase in interest income of the company in the first half of the year. The R & D expenditure rate is 8.73% (+ 3.22pct), which is due to the increase in R & D investment in various business sectors of the company in the first half of the year.
The number of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly, and with the introduction of testing standards for new energy vehicles, the company is expected to usher in a second spring.
The number of newly registered Xineng cars increased from 1.07 million in 2018 to 5.35 million in 2022, with a CAGR of 49.53%. The number of new energy vehicles is growing at a high speed, and the age of some new energy vehicles has reached the inspection age, and the new energy vehicle testing standard is coming soon. In June 2023, the draft of "Inspection regulations for Operation Safety performance of New Energy vehicles" was released, which intends to carry out supplementary testing of the three electric systems and electrical safety. At present, the company already has new energy vehicle testing equipment, and at the same time, it has increased its layout testing operation business by purchasing testing stations. By the end of 2022, the company has directly operated 41 testing stations, and has acquired 11 new ones since 2023. In the future, the company is expected to fully benefit the new energy vehicle inspection business.
Profit forecast: from 2023 to 2025, it is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.7 / 1.1 / 160 million yuan, corresponding to PE of 56X/ 36X/ 25X, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: the introduction of new vehicle testing standards is not as expected; the acquisition progress of the testing station is not as expected; the progress of new business is not as expected; the performance forecast and valuation are not as expected.