Golden arowana issued an announcement: 2023H1 revenue 118.71 billion yuan (- 0.6%); return to the mother net profit of 970 million yuan (- 51.1%).
Main points of investment
The income is under a little pressure, and many factors lead to a decline in profits.
2023Q2 revenue is 57.67 billion yuan (- 8.4%); net profit is 110 million yuan (- 94.0%); non-net profit is-230 million yuan (- 114.2%). The decline in income was mainly due to the decline in product prices. 2023H1 gross margin 4.2% (- 3.4pct), net margin 0. 5%.
7% (- 1.1pct). 2023Q2 gross margin 3.1% (- 4.8pct); net margin 0.1% (- 3.0pct). 2023Q2 sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate 2.4%, 1.5%, 0.2%, 0.3/0.2/-0.6pct. The decline in the company's net profit is mainly due to: 1) the proportion of food and beverage channels with lower gross profit margin of kitchen food has increased, and the profit growth of retail channel products has not completely offset the impact of the decline of food and beverage channel product profits. 2) the decline in the market of oil and oil technology products leads to a squeeze of profits, while the price of soybean oil falls, but the higher cost of soybeans leads to crushing losses. The decline in deduction of non-net profit is mainly due to the impact of the profit and loss of derivative financial instruments that do not fully meet the hedging accounting requirements.
The quantity of products increases and the price drops, and the central kitchen project is expected to run smoothly.
2023H1: kitchen food income 73.52 billion yuan (- 3.4%), sales 11.092 million tons (+ 9.5%), unit price 6629 yuan / ton (- 11.8%); feed raw materials and oil science and technology income 44.46 billion yuan (+ 4.7%), sales 11.7 million tons (+ 16.
The unit price is 3800 yuan / ton (- 9.9%). The price drop is mainly due to the decline in the price of raw materials and the decline in the market. 2023H1 has a net increase of 72 dealers to 7840. At present, the central chef bases in Hangzhou, Zhoukou and Chongqing have been successfully put into production, and it is expected that Xingping, Shenyang and Langfang will be completed in 2023. Central kitchen business and the existing rice, noodles, oil, condiments and other business to better complement and promote, give full play to the company's comprehensive advantages.
Profit forecast
In 2023-2025, the EPS was adjusted to 0.70Universe 0.96 and the current share price corresponding to PE is respectively times higher than that in 59-43-31. With the recovery of consumer demand after the epidemic and the continued advancement of the high-end trend and the development of the central kitchen business, the company's performance is expected to achieve good growth and maintain the "buy" investment rating.
Risk hint
Macroeconomic fluctuation risk, industry policy change risk, consumption recovery is less than expected, downstream demand fluctuation, raw material price fluctuation and so on.