Bay area core assets: two-wheel-driven growth of network transportation, high labor costs and sustained inflation
The main operating asset of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway is the Shenzhen-Guangzhou-Pingshi railway section that runs through the Dawan area. On the revenue side, the company adopts a toll mode of separation of network and transportation. The railway network collects train tolls at a fixed fee, and at the same time, it operates several lines to collect train fare revenue; on the cost side, the company's labor costs account for nearly 40% in 2022, so it is greatly disturbed by inflation.
The end of parallel shunt: the high-speed rail network is basically completed, and the margin of shunt effect is weakened.
Affected by the adjustment of the network structure, the opening of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway has diverted the Guangzhou-Shenzhen railway twice in history. However, with the gradual maturity of the transportation network in Guangdong Province, railway passenger transport has formed a railway network structure with high-speed rail as the main trunk line and general railway as a branch line. At present, the shunting effect of high-speed rail on the company is basically coming to an end. The company's main business is showing an obvious trend of repair.
The starting point of cross drainage: go to Ganshen in the north, cross the border in the south, extend to Guangshan in the east and Guangzhan in the west, and fully deduce the network value.
Sitting on three urban railway stations in Guangzhou, East Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, which runs through the north-south railway line, has unique location advantages and network value. With the gradual formation of high-speed rail trunk line construction in Guangdong Province, the Bay area railway network has gradually entered the optimization stage. The company connects to the high-speed rail network in the form of a contact line, going to Jiangxi and Shenzhen in the north, crossing the border in the south, Guangshan in the east and Guangzhan in the west, the network value is fully deducted, and the volume and price space may have been opened.
Infrastructure relay: upgrading of core sites, switching between high-speed rail and general railway
Although the access line magnifies the radiation area of the high-speed rail, it is still far from Guangzhou's goal of "high-speed rail entering the city". According to the Guangzhou Transportation Development Strategic Plan, the core function of Guangzhou East Railway Station in the future is to connect with Shenzhen and Hong Kong, and Guangzhou Station will become the hub of Guangzhou high-speed rail. According to the Guangzhou Baiyun District Committee, it is expected that the opening of Baiyun Station by the end of 2023 will fully relieve the pressure on Guangzhou and Guangzhou East Railway Station. The foundation for the reconstruction of the high-speed rail at the two major stations has been consolidated, and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen railway has ushered in the opportunity of comprehensively transforming the operation of high-speed rail.
The fare reform continues: the railway reform is piloted first, and the flexibility of the transformation of high-speed rail is opened.
As a pilot project of railway reform, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway under the jurisdiction of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway Group has been approved for the policy of rising fares since 1996. at present, the pricing benchmarks of Putonghua Railway / intercity trains under Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway are in the lead of the national level. at the same time, with the gradual transformation of the company's road network to high-speed rail, ticket price flexibility has been opened, and there is room for growth.
Investment suggestion: as an important transportation infrastructure, location characteristics and network positioning are the core elements that determine the value of the enterprise. Guangzhou-Shenzhen railway is located in the core section of Dawan area, and the company ushered in an important opportunity for the conversion from general railway to high-speed rail in the process of road network optimization. It is estimated that the operating income of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 251.19\ 272.10\ 28.4 billion yuan respectively, the net profit returned to the mother is 11.32\ 13.76\ 1.512 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 20.28\ 16.68\ 15.18 times respectively.
Risk hints: the repair of railway passenger transport demand is lower than expected, the number of new lines is lower than expected, the risk of price fluctuation in railway reform, the risk of parallel high-speed rail, highway diversion, the transformation of important stations is not as expected, the risk of measurement error, China and the international market are not completely comparable, the relevant data are for reference only.