The investors in Conifer Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CNFR) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 27% to US$1.42 in the week following its quarterly results. The results overall were pretty much dead in line with analyst forecasts; revenues were US$25m and statutory losses were US$0.39 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimate suggests is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Conifer Holdings

After the latest results, the consensus from Conifer Holdings' one analyst is for revenues of US$100.2m in 2023, which would reflect a noticeable 4.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$0.26. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$97.8m and losses of US$0.27 per share in 2023. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analyst becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and losses per share.

The consensus price target fell 35%, to US$1.07, suggesting that the analyst remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.8% annualised decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 2.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Conifer Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analyst made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Conifer Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Conifer Holdings going out as far as 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Conifer Holdings .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.