The vanguard of energy construction, the layout of new energy to create a new engine for high-quality development, and the maintenance of "buy" rating companies are the national team and vanguard of energy construction. The 14th five-year Plan targets to 2025, revenue / profit / new signing / total assets and other indicators double than in 2020, five years to create a high-quality development of new energy construction. The group's "3060" plan clearly revolves around the "3060" system solution, which is based on the two basic points of energy storage and hydrogen energy, and strengthens the development of new energy investment and construction integrated projects. Scenery New Energy EPC+ has a broad space for investment and operation, and the territory of hydrogen energy and energy storage expands rapidly, creating a new engine for the development of the company.
23Q1 achieved a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, with a new signing of 645.9 billion over the same period of last year and + 21% compared with the same period last year.
We estimate that the 23-25 return net profit of the company will be RMB 108.126 billion, compared with the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of + 16%, 19%, and 17%, with a 23-year target PE 14x, a target price of 3.04 yuan, and a "buy" rating.
Focus on the investment and operation of new energy EPC+ to open up a broad space for growth
The company has made simultaneous efforts in new energy construction and investment and operation business in the past 22 years. 1) in terms of new energy project construction, the company signed a new contract of 355 billion yuan in 22 years, + 83.9% of the same period last year. By the end of 22, the company carried out survey, design and construction of new energy projects with a cumulative installed capacity exceeding 200GW and 100GW. 2) in terms of new energy investment and operation, the company obtained the new energy investment index 16.2GW in 22 years, which was + 39.8% compared with the same period last year. In 22 years, the company added new grid-connected scenery new energy holdings installed 2.4GW. By the end of 22, the company's new energy cumulative grid-connected 5.0GW, combined with 25-year holding installation target 20GW, new energy power investment and operation still has broad room for growth.
First layout hydrogen energy, energy storage emerging business, casting the second growth curve 1) first layout hydrogen energy whole industry chain, the scale of the project on hand is considerable. Under the goal of "double carbon", the strategic position of hydrogen energy is clear. According to the China hydrogen Energy Alliance, the annual demand for hydrogen will reach 37.15 million tons / 130 million tons in 2030 / 2060, accounting for 5% of the terminal energy consumption. The company is one of the earliest central enterprises to carry out forward-looking research on hydrogen energy. Over the past 22 years, it has rapidly laid the hydrogen energy business map and worked together with the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to open the market.
Through the signing of cooperation agreements with Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and other local people's governments to develop hydrogen energy projects, cooperation with upstream and downstream industrial companies to develop hydrogen energy market, extensive layout, rapid large-scale, the total investment of projects in hand exceeds 100 billion. In July 23, the company signed an agreement with Huifeng Petrochemical on the storage, transportation and marketing of liquid ammonia and methanol products to further open up the supply chain system. In January, 22, the company was established to build hydrogen energy as a hydrogen energy business platform, with the goal of forming a hydrogen energy storage and application plus research industry chain before 25 years, with an annual output value of 10 billion, profits of 1 billion, hydrogen energy or faster contribution of considerable profits.
2) set up an energy storage research institute to help the track race, and achieve a breakthrough in large-scale compressed air energy storage. The new energy allocation and storage policy drives the expansion of the energy storage market. Zhongneng Construction Group was established in January 22, focusing on 300MW large-capacity compressed air energy storage technology, and engineering verification has been carried out in Yingcheng, Hubei Province. The 300MW compressed air energy storage project in Yingcheng, Hubei Province, invested by the main body of the company, has an energy conversion efficiency of more than 70%, and the unit cost is reduced to about 6000 yuan / kilowatt. It is the first 300MW class non-supplementary combustion compressed air energy storage demonstration project in the world. After completion, it will achieve the goals of single machine power in the world, energy storage scale in the world and conversion efficiency in the world. As of November 22, the company has located nearly 100 sites in the country, with a total scale of 3GW, and plans to distribute nearly 100 compressed air energy storage power stations in the future.
Risk hints: the implementation effect of the company's strategy is lower than expected, power and infrastructure investment is weaker than expected, impairment risk, policy risk