Events:
Recently, the company's annual production of 5GW photovoltaic modules and 8 GW heterojunction photovoltaic battery production base investment project the first phase of 1GW photovoltaic module production equipment has been officially put into production, the remaining 1GW photovoltaic modules and 1GW heterojunction battery production plant is expected to be delivered before the end of September 2023, in which the photovoltaic module production line is expected to start construction within one month after the delivery of the plant, and enter the commissioning period four months later. The heterojunction battery production line is expected to be completed and put into production within 9 months after the start of construction and reach production within 3 months after it is put into production, and the third phase of the second phase of the project will be launched at the right time.
Comments:
Industrial testing + new energy two-wheel drive to develop the second growth curve. Focusing on the core technology of "optical inspection + automatic control", the company provides industrial inspection intelligent equipment and other related products and services to lithium electricity, semiconductors, PCB, flat panel display and other manufacturers, and the market covers dozens of countries and regions around the world. The company's traditional business is greatly affected by the downstream industry cycle. In 2022, the company's operating income was 991 million yuan, down 32% from the same period last year. After the state-owned assets invested in 2021, the company became a state-owned holding enterprise in Jingdezhen City, Jiangxi Province, officially launched the "industrial testing + new energy" two-wheel drive strategy, the company with the help of local government strength, actively layout a number of photovoltaic projects in Jingdezhen, the company is expected to form the company's second growth curve in the future.
Photovoltaic installed capacity continues to increase, photovoltaic business can be expected in the future. In the first half of 2023, China's photovoltaic installed 78GW accumulatively increased by + 154% compared with the same period last year, with a sustained rapid growth trend. The company's photovoltaic capacity projects have been put into production one after another, and it is expected to gradually form new business increments: (1) the company's annual production capacity of 12500 tons of photovoltaic welding tape project is now in small batch production, with an estimated annual production capacity of 6600 tons in 2023. (2) in October 2022, the company announced that the construction of an annual production base for 5GW photovoltaic modules and 8GW heterojunction photovoltaic battery slices will be divided into three phases, and the first phase will form the production capacity of 2GW photovoltaic modules and 1GW heterojunction battery slices. At present, the first phase of 1GW photovoltaic modules has been put into production, and the remaining 1GW photovoltaic modules and 1GW heterojunction battery slices are expected to be delivered before the end of September. Under the high boom of heterojunction battery chips and components in the overseas market, the company actively distributes overseas sales, and it is expected that 60-70% of the production capacity will be supplied to overseas customers, and the photovoltaic business has great potential for growth.
Profit forecast: the company actively layout photovoltaic business, with the gradual release of the first phase of components and battery capacity, is expected to form a contribution to the company by the end of the year, the second growth curve is gradually forming. We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 0.73 / 2.49 / 3.34 yuan from 2023 to 2025, corresponding to 43 / 13 / 9 times of PE. Give 2024 earnings 18 times PE valuation, target price of 12.2 yuan, the first coverage, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected, profit forecast and valuation judgment are not as expected.