Event: the company released its semi-annual report for 2023, with revenue of 820 million yuan, + 15.7% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 89.173 million yuan,-24.2% year-on-year. Split up, Q2 revenue is 450 million yuan, year-on-year + 47.0%, month-on-quarter + 17.7%, a record high for a single quarter; Q2 net profit is 45.856 million yuan, + 28.3% year-on-year, + 5.9% month-on-month.
Differential / commercial vehicles are an important growth point for the company, while aviation has declined slightly. In the first half of the year, the income of Luzhou Haoneng (main differential) was 140 million yuan, an increase of 96.8% over the same period last year, which was the most important increase in the company's income, mainly due to the climbing of production capacity and the release of orders; the income of the parent company (the main business car) was 160 million yuan, up 67.8% from the same period last year, mainly due to the high prosperity of the commercial vehicle market; Hao Yiqiang (main aviation) revenue was 110 million yuan, down 6.6% from the same period last year.
Profitability is declining. Q2 company gross profit margin 29.4%, year-on-year-5.5pp, month-on-month-2.5pp, the decline is presumed to be mainly due to the decline in aviation business profitability (23H1 Haoyiqiang net profit rate 29.7%, year-on-year-17.8pp).
In terms of expense rate, Q2 sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate are 1.3%, 6.0%, 5.6%, 4.3%, respectively, with year-on-year changes-1pp/-1.3pp/-4.7pp/+2.4pp. Overall, Q2's net interest rate is 10.2%, year-on-year-2.3pp, month-on-month-1.2pp.
Differential is expected to continue to increase, invest in motor shaft to create a new growth point. Looking to the future, the company still has good growth. First, the company's differential is progressing smoothly, and the company has carried out a number of cooperation with BYD, Dana, Geely, Great Wall, NIO Inc., ideal and other customers, and some products have been mass produced. in the future, it is expected to benefit from the volume of BYD, Dana, ideal and other customers, differential revenue is expected to continue to increase; second, the company's commercial vehicle business is expected to continue to achieve good growth in the context of the recovery of the heavy truck industry. Third, the company's motor shaft project is expected to complete the construction of Q3 plant and equipment commissioning, and Q4 will form part of the production capacity. 2 million motor shafts in 24 years will gradually climb the slope. According to the estimate of 150-200 yuan per piece, the project is expected to bring 300-400 million yuan of income increment after reaching full production.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's EPS for 2023-2025 will be 0.56 EPS 0.72 Universe 0.95 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.46% for three-year homing net profit, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuations, the main engine factory price reduction led to a sharp decline in profit margin risk, the new business progress is not as expected risk.