2023H1 realized a net profit of 4.43 billion yuan,-54% compared with the same period last year. 2023H1 realized operating income of 9.32 billion yuan,-43% of the same period last year, and net profit of 4.43 billion yuan, 54% of the same period last year. Corresponding to 2023Q2, the operating income is 4.47 billion yuan,-46% year-on-year,-8% month-on-month, and the net profit is 1.52 billion yuan,-71% year-on-year and-48% month-on-month.
Production capacity expansion is advancing steadily, and silicon prices are under pressure. 2023H1, the company achieved polysilicon sales of 77000 tons, year-on-year + 1%; corresponding 2023Q2 sales of 52000 tons, year-on-year + 37%, month-on-month + 108%. The company expects to produce 19.3-198000 tons in 2023, of which 2023Q3 produces 5.5-57000 tons. 2023H1, the new production capacity of the silicon industry has been released one after another, the domestic silicon supply has increased significantly, and the price has fallen rapidly. 2023H1, the price of the company's polysilicon non-tax unit is 1210,000 yuan / ton,-43% compared with the same period last year; the corresponding 2023Q2 non-tax unit price is 86,000 yuan / ton,-60% year-on-year, month-on-month-55%.
Low energy consumption + low unit consumption of raw materials, cost advantage is significant. 2023H1, the company's polysilicon unit cost 51000 yuan / ton, year-on-year-19%; unit cash cost 45,000 yuan / ton, year-on-year-22%; corresponding 2023Q2 unit cost 500,000 yuan / ton, year-on-year-1%, month-on-month ratio-6%; unit cash cost 44,000 yuan / ton, year-on-year-3%, month-on-month-6%. Through the continuous improvement of polysilicon production technology, the company can maximize the intensive use of energy, reduce energy consumption per unit product and unit consumption of raw materials, further reduce production costs and increase product gross profit margin. At present, the unit consumption of electricity, water and other materials in the production process of the company is far better than the industry average level of China Photovoltaic Industry Association. Lower power consumption and lower raw material consumption make the company have a certain cost advantage.
Continue to promote technological research and development, is expected to benefit from the high demand for N-type silicon. 2023H1, the company's polysilicon product quality is maintained at a high level, the proportion of single crystal silicon wafer materials is more than 99%, and has achieved the batch sale of N-type high-purity silicon materials, which has been verified by a number of mainstream downstream enterprises. With the transition of the industry to the next generation of N-type technology, the sales premium of N-type silicon increases, and the demand increases significantly. The sales of N-type silicon is expected to become a new profit growth point of the company.
Risk tips: the risk that the production of new capacity is not up to expectations; the risk of intensified competition in the industry; the risk that the company's reduction is not as good as expected.
Investment suggestion: considering the downward quotation of polysilicon and carefully lowering the company's profit forecast for 2023, we expect the company's net return profit for 2023-2025 to be 55.5, 363, and 6.34 billion yuan (originally forecast, 65.0, 3.63), with a growth rate of-71%, 35%, 74%, and diluted EPS of 2.60, 1.70, 2.97 yuan. Corresponding to the 2023-2025 dynamic PE is 15-23-13 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.