Tieke track is a "national team" in the field of track engineering subdivision with high-speed rail fasteners as the core. 2023H1, the company's revenue increased by 66.3%, and its net profit increased by 99.7%. The performance growth under the capacity expansion during the year is highly deterministic. It is expected that the demand for fasteners brought about by the new construction and replacement of high-speed rail will still be good in the future. considering the company's advantage of integrated production and research, the demand for speed increase of high-speed rail will be anchored in the research project, and the rating of increasing its holding will be given for the first time.
Support the main points of rating
Track works "national team" with high-speed rail fasteners as the core. The domestic high-speed rail fastener patent comes from the Railway Science Research Institute Group, the parent company of Tieke track Holdings. Patent authorization and product certification make the industry entry threshold high and the supply pattern stable. Tieke track, as the only patent free authorized user in the industry, has improved its operation since its listing, and its net interest rate has increased steadily.
Depending on the development of high-speed rail, the demand for fasteners is improving. In terms of new construction, according to the outline of Railway advance Planning for a New era of Traffic Power issued by the National Railway Group in July 2020, by 2035, the mileage of domestic high-speed rail will reach 70,000 km, with an average annual increase of 2000 km, corresponding to an average annual demand for more than 2.6 billion yuan of fasteners. In terms of replacement, as the early lines put into operation after 2023 gradually reach the maintenance and replacement cycle, under the assumptions of optimistic (replacement cycle 10 years), neutral (replacement cycle 15 years) and pessimistic (replacement cycle 20 years), the average replacement demand for high-speed rail fasteners from 2008 to 2035 reached 3102.2, 1945.5 and 10.175 million sets respectively, corresponding to the market demand of 62.0,38.9 and 2.04 billion yuan.
The integration of industry and research, anchoring the demand for speed increase of high-speed rail in the research project. After the establishment of Tieke track, it participated in the formation and follow-up improvement and upgrading process of high-speed rail fastener system and other technologies led by the Academy of Railway Sciences in the form of joint research and development. The company attaches importance to technological innovation, the patent in the field of fasteners is ahead of its domestic counterparts, and the product quality parameters are excellent. In 2019, Tieke track absorbed the core R & D personnel who played a leading role in the formation of high-speed rail and heavy-duty fastener system technology. Tieke track anchors the future demand for speed increase of high-speed rail. On the basis of summarizing the existing experience, the research project is expected to develop a new generation of fastener system suitable for the operation of high-speed rail with a speed of more than 400 kilometers per hour.
Valuation
The company is a "national team" with the advantage of integrated production and research in the field of rail works, and the gradual release of the production capacity of the fund-raising project is expected to lead performance growth. It is estimated that the company's 2023-2025 income will be 17.3,20.4 and 2.18 billion yuan respectively, and the return net profit will be 3.2,3.6 and 420 million yuan respectively; the EPS will be 1.49,1.73,1.97 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will reach 24.7,21.4 and 18.8 times respectively. For the first time, the overweight rating was given.
Main risks faced by rating
High-speed rail construction is not as expected, major high-speed rail accidents, fastener replacement demand is lower than expected, capacity construction is not as expected, and orders are not as expected.