23H1 homing net profit yoy+2%, maintains profit forecast and target price
According to the half-yearly report, 23H1 achieved revenue of 11.084 billion yuan (yoy+34%), net profit of 274 million yuan (yoy+2%) and non-net profit of 246 million yuan (yoy-5%). Among them, Q2 realized revenue of 6.604 billion yuan (yoy+34%,qoq+47%) and net profit of 196 million yuan (yoy+1.4%,qoq+152%). To maintain the profit forecast, we expect the company's 2023-2025 net profit to be 786, 1.102, 1.418 billion yuan and EPS, 0.82, 1.15, 1.49 yuan. Comparable company's 23-year Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 13.5 times, considering that the company's 23-25 CAGR (29%) is better than that of its peers (20%), giving the company 18 times PE for 23 years, maintaining the target price of 14.76 yuan and "overweight" rating.
The demand of power plant drives up the sales of natural gas, and the gross margin needs to be improved.
23H1's natural gas supply is 2.410 billion square meters (yoy+30%); Foshan natural gas sales volume is 1.682 billion square meters (yoy+23%), of which power plant natural gas sales volume is 370 million square meters (yoy+242%), benefiting from electricity demand growth, non-power plant natural gas sales volume 1.311 billion square meters (yoy+4%), weak recovery in industrial and commercial activities Natural gas sales outside Foshan City are 670 million square meters (yoy+52%), of which Enping Foshan subsidiary gas sales volume yoy+115%, Zhaoqing area natural gas sales yoy+34%. 23H1's city gas business has revenue of 7.9 billion yuan (yoy+15%) and gross profit margin of 7.5% (yoy-3.1pct). The improvement of the company's gross margin still depends on the downward cost of natural gas procurement.
The supply chain network has been gradually formed, and the revenue scale of 23H1 has increased greatly.
A supply chain network centered on Yuanheng warehousing has been gradually formed. 23H1 has achieved a revenue of 2.415 billion yuan from the sale of petrochemical products, including more than 300000 tons of refined oil, 70,000 tons of methanol, 650000 litres of gasoline and 290000 litres of diesel. The company also provides bonded warehousing and logistics services, with a turnover of about 400000 tons of biodiesel and 550000 tons of fuel oil. The company's stake in the second phase of Zhuhai Jinwan LNG receiving Station is scheduled to be put into production in 2024, which is expected to enhance the company's rights and interests in imported gas processing. 23H1's supply chain business has a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan (yoy+197%) and a gross profit margin of 0.8% (yoy-0.9pct).
New energy business is advancing steadily, and 23H1 revenue keeps growing.
The company operates in the "mother-child" mode with the integrated hydrogen production and hydrogenation station as the "mother station" and the conventional hydrogenation station as the "sub-station". 23H1 provides hydrogenation services of more than 3,000 vehicles and hydrogenation capacity of more than 30,000 kg. Relying on the regional advantages of gas business, the company has steadily developed distributed photovoltaic. 23H1 has newly invested in building a BIPV capacity of about 4.10MW, with a cumulative installed capacity exceeding 34MW. The company provides natural gas cogeneration, central heating, single boiler (energy-saving transformation) and building domestic hot water and other thermal supply services, 23H1 supply of about 599800 tons of steam, heating about 75.33 million gig coke. 23H1's new energy business has revenue of 297 million yuan (yoy+3%).
Risk hints: gas prices soar; domestic gas demand recovery is not as expected; domestic gas price policy risk.