YUEXIU TRANSPORT(1052.HK):1H23 EARNINGS +45% YOY WITH SOLID DIV PAYOUT; POTENTIAL ASSET INJECTION TO BOOST GROWTH
YUEXIU TRANSPORT(1052.HK):1H23 EARNINGS +45% YOY WITH SOLID DIV PAYOUT; POTENTIAL ASSET INJECTION TO BOOST GROWTH
Yuexiu Transport's net profit in 1H23 surged 45% YoY to RMB427mn, driven by the recovery of tariff volume and reduction of finance expense. Yuexiu Transport proposed interim dividend of HK$0.15/share, implying 53.8% dividend payout ratio (1H22: 48.8%). The Company is confident of maintaining a full year payout target of 50-60%. We maintain our positive view on Yuexiu Transport with catalysts coming from (1) potential injection of high-quality assets (Henan Pinglin and Shandong Qinbin Expressway) from the parent company; (2) potential spin-off of infrastructure REITs. We revise up our 2023E/24E earnings forecast by 6%/5% largely due to higher gross margin and lower finance cost assumptions. Maintain BUY with new DCF-based TP of HK$7.5, implying 12x 2023E P/E.
在關稅量恢復和財務支出減少的推動下，越秀交通在2013年上半年的淨利潤同比增長45％，至4.27億元人民幣。越秀交通擬派發中期股息爲每股0.15港元，這意味着派息率爲53.8％（2022年上半年：48.8%）。公司有信心將全年派息目標維持在50-60％。我們對越秀交通保持積極的看法，催化劑來自（1）母公司可能注入優質資產（河南平林和山東秦濱高速）；（2）基礎設施房地產投資信託基金的潛在分拆。我們將2023E/24E的收益預測上調了6％/ 5％，這主要是由於毛利率提高和財務成本假設降低。維持買入，基於DCF的新目標價爲7.5港元，這意味着2023年市盈率爲12倍。
1H23 results highlights. Revenue grew 20% YoY to RMB1.9bn, mainly driven by the increased toll revenue on the back of recovery of traffic volume and the consolidation of the newly acquired Henan Lanwei Expressway.Gross margin increased 1ppt YoY to 56.6%. Admin expense ratio slightly expanded 0.6ppt YoY to 6.9%. Profit from associates & JV increased 43% YoY to RMB130mn. Net finance expense dropped 11% YoY to RMB270mn, as effective interest cost reduced to 3.33% in 1H23 (3.78% in 1H22) . Net profit grew 45% YoY to RMB427mn. Operating cash inflow increased 25% YoY to RMB1,340mn. As at end Jun 2023, net debt/equity ratio improved to 102%.
2023 年上半年業績亮點。收入同比增長20％，達到19億元人民幣，這主要是由於交通量恢復以及新收購的河南爛尾高速公路的整合，通行費收入增加。毛利率同比增長1個百分點至56.6％。管理費用比率同比小幅增長0.6個百分點至6.9％。聯營公司和合資企業的利潤同比增長43％，達到1.3億元人民幣。淨融資支出同比下降11％，至2.7億元人民幣，原因是有效利息成本在23年上半年降至3.33％（2022年上半年爲3.78％）。淨利潤同比增長45％，達到4.27億元人民幣。運營現金流入同比增長25％，達到13.4億元人民幣。截至2023年6月底，淨負債/權益比率提高至102％。
Solid revenue growth of major toll projects. The three major projects, namely GNSR Expressway, Suiyuenan Expressway and Daguangnan Expressway, reported solid revenue growth in 1H23 (+11%/14%/20% YoY).Hancai Expressway delivered a 20% YoY increase in toll revenue, driven by the strong recovery in traffic volume (+36% YoY). Besides, Henan Lanwei Expressway, the newly acquired project, contributed revenue of RMB153mn in 1H23.
主要收費項目的收入穩步增長。三大項目，即GNSR高速公路、隨嶽南高速公路和大廣南高速公路，在23年上半年收入穩健增長（同比增長11％/ 14％/ 20％）。在交通量強勁回升（同比增長36％）的推動下，漢蔡高速公路的通行費收入同比增長20％。此外，新收購的河南蘭尾高速公路項目在2013年上半年貢獻了1.53億元人民幣的收入。
GNSR Expressway R&E Project is on track. GNSR Expressway R&E Project has completed the design optimisation of construction drawing, application of approval for land use and environmental impact assessment.Moreover, mgmt. expects capex saving of ~RMB900mn upon the design optimisation. The full-scale construction work is expected to be carried out in Oct 2023, at the latest by the end-23.
GNSR 高速公路 R&E 項目已步入正軌。GNSR Expressway R&E Project已經完成了施工圖紙、土地使用批准申請和環境影響評估的設計優化。此外，mgmt. 預計設計優化可節省約9000萬元人民幣的資本支出。全面施工預計將於2023年10月進行，最遲在23日底進行。
Capex guidance. Capex in 1H23 amounted to RMB645mn. Mgmt. guided a full year capex of RMB1.95bn in 2023E, comprising RMB1.6bn for the GNSR Expressway R&E project and RMB350mn for maintaining capex.
資本支出指導。23 年上半年的資本支出爲人民幣 6.45 億美元。Mgmt. 預計2023年全年資本支出爲19.5億元人民幣，其中包括用於GNSR高速公路研發項目的16億元人民幣和用於維持資本支出的3.5億元人民幣。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。